PC: Alt-Congress of Vienna (failure of Prussia)

[vn6]

Because IOTL Prussia was almost always succeeding (until World War I), I like timelines when it does not succeed. Here it's going to be left out in cold at Vienna Congress due to Austro-Russian deal.

The deal is following:
- Galicia and Bukowina to Russia,
- Rhine Province, Westphalia, Luxembourg and Austrian Netherlands to Austria,
- Prussia only gets as much Saxony and as much Poznań (Wielkopolska) as IOTL.

Austrian Netherlands might be traded for some German or Italian duchies, with a portion of Austrian debt moved to the new state.

Do you think it's possible given close Russo-Prussian relationship at the time? How France and Britain would react and can they undo this agreement?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Not sure if GB and France are fine with such a peace deal, Russia is strengthened, Austria is extremely strong (both things which go against the balance of power) and Prussia cannot be used against Russia, Austria or France depending on who you ask.
Austria would be reluctant to ally itself with Russia and Austria was trying to champion itself as the protector of German states, a thing that isn't possible if you're annexing them yourself when you have absolutely 0 claim to them.
It is in the interest of everyone except Austria to strengthen Prussia (Russia wouldn't be very enthusiastic over such a massive Austria either) so I doubt the Austrians can pull this trough.

 

[vn6]

Not sure if GB and France are fine with such a peace deal, Russia is strengthened, Austria is extremely strong (both things which go against the balance of power) and Prussia cannot be used against Russia, Austria or France depending on who you ask.
Austria would be reluctant to ally itself with Russia and Austria was trying to champion itself as the protector of German states, a thing that isn't possible if you're annexing them yourself when you have absolutely 0 claim to them.
It is in the interest of everyone except Austria to strengthen Prussia (Russia wouldn't be very enthusiastic over such a massive Austria either) so I doubt the Austrians can pull this trough.

Would getting Rhineland & Westphalia count as annexation?

As for Russia, I think it would like the deal for 2 reasons:
- it gets even more massive than OTL,
- such Austria would be entangled in the West, in permanent enemity with France, so it would care less about the Balkans.

Maybe other solution can be found. Russia gets Galicia, Austria gets the Austrian Netherlands (which it possibly trades for Modena and Tuscany) and Rhineland is given to anyone but Prussia (maybe to the House of Oranje-Nassau). Here Austria is about as strong as OTL (or bit weaker) but Prussia is even weaker so Austrian domination in Germany isn't challenged that much.

What do you think?

 

[alexmilman]

Because IOTL Prussia was almost always succeeding (until World War I), I like timelines when it does not succeed. Here it's going to be left out in cold at Vienna Congress due to Austro-Russian deal.

The deal is following:
- Galicia and Bukowina to Russia,

Very low value: Bukowina and Eastern Galicia are poor and oil will become a valuable commodity many decades later. Why would AI agree to this if Austria is getting everything on your list.

- Rhine Province, Westphalia, Luxembourg and Austrian Netherlands to Austria,
- Prussia only gets as much Saxony and as much Poznań (Wielkopolska) as IOTL.

Austrian Netherlands might be traded for some German or Italian duchies, with a portion of Austrian debt moved to the new state.

Do you think it's possible given close Russo-Prussian relationship at the time? How France and Britain would react and can they undo this agreement?

 

[vn6]

Very low value: Bukowina and Eastern Galicia are poor and oil will become a valuable commodity many decades later. Why would AI agree to this if Austria is getting everything on your list.

It does have quite high population though and AFAIK tsar wanted all of Poland initially.

How about Austria getting either Rhineland/Westphalia or Austrian Netherlands/Luxembourg? First one would be better IMO as it's German-speaking land at the core of German Confederation. Is that possible?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Would getting Rhineland & Westphalia count as annexation?

It gives the land of someone else to the Austrians, Prussia doesn't have a problem with that since they're already seen as the big evil in the German world however Austria is trying to champion itself as the protector of these states which is not realistic if you're annexing them yourself (you will note that Austria didn't take lands in Germany like Prussia did).

As for Russia, I think it would like the deal for 2 reasons:
- it gets even more massive than OTL,
- such Austria would be entangled in the West, in permanent enemity with France, so it would care less about the Balkans.

This is a very bad deal for the Russians since Austria is strengthened immensely while they get only Galicia which isn't comparable to the Rhineland and Austrian Netherlands.

Maybe other solution can be found. Russia gets Galicia, Austria gets the Austrian Netherlands (which it possibly trades for Modena and Tuscany) and Rhineland is given to anyone but Prussia (maybe to the House of Oranje-Nassau). Here Austria is about as strong as OTL (or bit weaker) but Prussia is even weaker so Austrian domination in Germany isn't challenged that much.

The point of giving the Rhineland to Prussia was to put them in the first line in case of French expansionism, this was an interest of everyone at the Congress, GB and Russia to contain France and Austria as it was betting on Prussia having problems with France and Prussia to become stronger, if Austria opposes this there still is 3 nations that want it and it would be hard to prevent Prussian expansion into the Rhineland without giving something else to them (like Saxony).

 

[alexmilman]

It does have quite high population though and AFAIK tsar wanted all of Poland initially.

The Eastern Galicia was very poor. Poland had prestige and was considered “covilized”. And AI had certain attachments to Poland: his mistress was Polish and his best friend and lover of his wife was a Pole. Now, what could Galicia offer to beat this competition? 😂

 

[vn6]

It gives the land of someone else to the Austrians, Prussia doesn't have a problem with that since they're already seen as the big evil in the German world however Austria is trying to champion itself as the protector of these states which is not realistic if you're annexing them yourself (you will note that Austria didn't take lands in Germany like Prussia did).

This is a very bad deal for the Russians since Austria is strengthened immensely while they get only Galicia which isn't comparable to the Rhineland and Austrian Netherlands.

The point of giving the Rhineland to Prussia was to put them in the first line in case of French expansionism, this was an interest of everyone at the Congress, GB and Russia to contain France and Austria as it was betting on Prussia having problems with France and Prussia to become stronger, if Austria opposes this there still is 4 nations that want it and it would be hard to prevent Prussian expansion into the Rhineland without giving something else to them (like Saxony).

Ok, so Austria getting into Prussia's role as guardian against France by getting Netherlands while Rhineland is given to Oranje-Nassau might be a possibility? With Russia getting Galicia of course.

The main point of all this is to prevent Prussia from having land at the center of German Confederation.

 

[Atrahasis]

I think you'd need something like Napoleon winning Waterloo or an equivalent for this, to then be defeated by Austria and Russia, and even with that it seems too much. This is especially out of character for someone like Metternich, who thought of Russia as a bigger threat than Prussia and France. A more plausible way to screw Prussia would be just giving Poznan to Russia and Prussia receiving either nothing or parts of Saxony in exchange; without the Rheinland Prussia will never be nearly as strong as OTL. The problem is the future of the Rheinland, because they probably wouldn't want to leave it too vulnerable to France, so it's really hard to tell.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Ok, so Austria getting into Prussia's role as guardian against France by getting Netherlands while Rhineland is given to Oranje-Nassau might be a possibility? With Russia getting Galicia of course.

It was shown previously that the Austrians weren't capable of containing the French which was the main reason why they gave up on it, the Oranjes don't have a claim on the Rhineland nor is there anyone that is willing to give them this territory for no reason.

The main point of all this is to prevent Prussia from having land at the center of German Confederation.

You have to make some changes before the Congress of Vienna for this, with OTL Congress of Vienna they could've gained less than OTL but them not getting anything in the Rhineland or at the expense of Saxony is very unrealistic.

 

[vn6]

The Eastern Galicia was very poor. Poland had prestige and was considered “covilized”. And AI had certain attachments to Poland: his mistress was Polish and his best friend and lover of his wife was a Pole. Now, what could Galicia offer to beat this competition? 😂

Western Galicia was (and still is, I'm living there) very much Polish.

Here tsar gets land for free and only price is to let Prussia get weaker. Wouldn't he go for that? Austria is also weaker as it only gets Belgium and is entangled in the west, so less competition in the Balkans.

The main point of my idea is prevent Prussia from getting Rhineland/Westphalia. Do you think there's any way to do it (other than letting it swallow Saxony)?

 

[vn6]

It was shown previously that the Austrians weren't capable of containing the French which was the main reason why they gave up on it, the Oranjes don't have a claim on the Rhineland nor is there anyone that is willing to give them this territory for no reason.

You have to make some changes before the Congress of Vienna for this, with OTL Congress of Vienna they could've gained less than OTL but them not getting anything in the Rhineland or at the expense of Saxony is very unrealistic.

So what's they way to make Prussia gain less than IOTL, from Austria's perspective? E.g. no Westphalia for Prussia.

 

[vn6]

I think you'd need something like Napoleon winning Waterloo or an equivalent for this, to then be defeated by Austria and Russia, and even with that it seems too much. This is especially out of character for someone like Metternich, who thought of Russia as a bigger threat than Prussia and France. A more plausible way to screw Prussia would be just giving Poznan to Russia and Prussia receiving either nothing or parts of Saxony in exchange; without the Rheinland Prussia will never be nearly as strong as OTL. The problem is the future of the Rheinland, because they probably wouldn't want to leave it too vulnerable to France, so it's really hard to tell.

Creating super-Netherlands with Belgium and Rhineland and/or Westphalia?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

So what's they way to make Prussia gain less than IOTL, from Austria's perspective? E.g. no Westphalia for Prussia.

It's difficult but the best option is probably Prussia siding with France at some point and if possible the German states (especially Saxony) side with the Coalition and even in this very unlikely scenario Prussia would still get some territories in Westphalia, for Prussia not to get anything you need to have a pre-1789 POD.

 

[vn6]

It's difficult but the best option is probably Prussia siding with France at some point and if possible the German states (especially Saxony) side with the Coalition and even in this very unlikely scenario Prussia would still get some territories in Westphalia, for Prussia not to get anything you need to have a pre-1789 POD.

Thanks for opinion. What do you think about this:
- Russia gets Galicia,
- Prussia only gets Rhineland,
- Westphalia goes to King of the Netherlands in place of Belgium,
- Belgium and Luxembourg to Austria (they might be traded for something else sooner or later).

Here Prussia isn't left with nothing and we have (at least at first) two great powers containing France.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Thanks for opinion. What do you think about this:
- Russia gets Galicia,
- Prussia only gets Rhineland,
- Westphalia goes to King of the Netherlands in place of Belgium,
- Belgium and Luxembourg to Austria (they might be traded for something else sooner or later).

Here Prussia isn't left with nothing and we have (at least at first) two great powers containing France.

Possible but I think that instead of Russia getting Galicia getting all of Poland (without being a separate state on paper) is enough for the Russians. And Westphalia would probably be an independent German state if the Prussians don't get it, the Dutch aren't in a position to demand anything.

 

[vn6]

Possible but I think that instead of Russia getting Galicia getting all of Poland (without being a separate state on paper) is enough for the Russians. And Westphalia would probably be an independent German state if the Prussians don't get it, the Dutch aren't in a position to demand anything.

So what to do to don't let Prussians get Westphalia?

Is Austria getting Belgium & Luxembourg without giving away anything possible?

 

[alexmilman]

Western Galicia was (and still is, I'm living there) very much Polish.

“Wrong” Poles. 😜 AI was sucking up to the Polish elite, not the minor nobility. And the whole acquisition is too small.

Here tsar gets land for free

As if he paid anything for the Congress Poland at Vienna.

and only price is to let Prussia get weaker. Wouldn't he go for that? Austria is also weaker as it only gets Belgium and is entangled in the west, so less competition in the Balkans.

Prussia was Russia’s closest ally and something like “the junior partner”. GB and Austria already were an opposition to the Russia-Prussia block. The Balkans (beyond the Principalities), IIRC, were not at the top of AI’s agenda.

The main point of my idea is prevent Prussia from getting Rhineland/Westphalia. Do you think there's any way to do it (other than letting it swallow Saxony)?

I have no idea about plausibility of that part of the schema.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

So what to do to don't let Prussians get Westphalia?

Put a bad diplomat at the Congress and/or make the Prussians more suspected of by the GPs outside Austria.

Is Austria getting Belgium & Luxembourg without giving away anything possible?

Belgium yes, Luxembourg no and would be given to someone else.

 

[TrickyApe]

The Eastern Galicia was very poor. Poland had prestige and was considered “covilized”. And AI had certain attachments to Poland: his mistress was Polish and his best friend and lover of his wife was a Pole. Now, what could Galicia offer to beat this competition? 😂

A way to sweeten the deal and make it actually valuable to Russia would be to include Danzig and free navigation of the Vistula, which was in fact the legacy situation Napoleon set up at Tilsit in 1807. The ability to freely import and export through Danzig would help a lot with Congress Poland and, via the existing canals, the lands eastward. It might even stimulate development in Galicia.

The deal could be sweetened even more by adding something similar with Memel and the Neman.