Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 1) Date: 29 May 2001 04:24:55 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if POD - General Reichenau who would die of a heart attack before the German 1942 offensive (Died January 17, 1942) had a favorite officer - General Paulus. Paulus (whose nickname was "Our Noble Lord") had virtually no combat experiance, although he was a good solid staff (quatermaster) officer. Reichenau was largely responsible for advancing Paulus to command of 6th Army. Now Reichenau dies on December 16, 1941. His replacement in our TL was Field Marshal von Bock, who had been on leave for mental and physical exhaustion. Here as Von Bock's resignation was the same day as Reichenau's death there is no chance he will take over Army Group South. December 1941 Hitler casts about for a sucessor for Reichenau. Reluctantly he opts to reappint Von Rundstedt (who had been relieved on December 1st). Hitler sees this as only a stopgap measure. January 1942 Von Rundstedt resumes command of Army Group South. Von Rundstedt does not approve of Von Paulus for active field command. Instead a substitute is sought in the General officer pool. Von Rundstedt becomes involved with the Planning for Case Bleu (Blue) the Southern Offensive. Again and again he argues that any attack must not be divided - either a drive to the volga or South into the Caucasus, not both. Hitler is presses for a two pronged effort. February 1942 The Soviet winter offensives - especially in the Staraya Russa area have been contained. More definite plans are made for a Southern operation. General Halder joins with Von Runstedt in pressing for more limited objectives. The 16th German Army is still under great pressure. Von Rundsteadt presses Hitler for a slection of a new commander for the 6th Army. Hitler is leaning towards Von Manstein, but the reduction of Crimea seems to preclude his selection. March 1942 The Russians and Germans pause on the Eastern front, except for some local action were isolated units are attempting to regain supply. April 1942 On April 26th Hitler addresses the Reichstag claiming the last winter in Russia was the worst this century*. He also claims that he will finish Russia in the Spring and Summer. Privately Halder and much of the General Staff are alarmed at the continuation of the war on the Eastern Front. May 1942 The Russian offensive at Kharkov is a major disaster, by Month's end much of the Soviet mobile army has been destroyed. The tactical advantage in the theater shifts decisively in favor of the Germans. In North Africa Rommel fights a difficult battle against the British, but finally captures Tobruk by late June. June 1942 Hitler appoints Rommel to command the Coming 6th Army offensive against the Russians. Rommel's sucessor, General Arnim, pauses after the capture of Tobruk to take Malta** The Italians and Germans do capture the Islands with significant loses. Now over Axis supplies move with much less difficulty to North Africa. Rommel assumes command of the 6th army and many of the Panzer Forces in Army Group B, commanded by Von Weichs. Rommel is significantly more daring than Von Paulus and as a favorite of Hitler is able to command more resources for the comming drive. *In our TL he did make such a speech **In our TL Rommel pressed Hitler to divert the supplies for Operation Hercules (invasion of Malta) to allow the attack into Egypt. Part 2 to Follow Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 2) Date: 29 May 2001 18:07:19 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if Late June 1942 Rommel in command of Herregruppe B (6th Army, 2nd Army and 4th Panzer) launches a much more daring offensive. Further and far more ominously for the Soviets Stalin issues his famous Ni shagu nazad (not one step back) order not on July 28th, but on June 28th. In part this is his reaction to German propaganda about the Desert Fox now being sent against the Russian bear. First unlike Bock in our TL Rommel is unconcerned about the stiff Soviet resistance at Voronezh and screens it with the infantry elements of the 6th Army*. Instead Rommel leading from the Front drives the 4th Panzer deep into the Soviet rear areas. Now they link up with Heeresgruppe A (1st Panzer, 17th Army) and form a huge pocket centered between the Doneta and Chir Rivers. Overs 350,000 Soviets are bagged and much of the Russia armor is destroyed.** July 1942 The Doneta Pocket is reduced. Rommel screens it with Infantry and Moves the 4th Panzer army directly towards Stalingrad. Now the Russians have little left to hold the city.***The Soviet commander General Yeremenko was tactically left with few options. While he held two fronts (Soviet Army Groups) he was now critically short on manpower and tanks***** The breakdown was as follows Soviets Germans Divisions 13 28 Manpower 205,000 427,000 Tanks 85 440 On the Direct Axis to Stalingrad the Soviets were even worse off Soviets Germans Divisions 2 10 Manpower 20,000 125,000 Tanks 40 250 The Battle for the city isn't much of an affair. Rommel punches across the Volga above and below the city. Panic sets in and the Soviet forces begin to disintergrate. August 1942 With the fall of Stalingrad Rommel flies to Werewolf (Hitler's eastern Headquarters) to request a further German advance up the Volga towards Saratov. But Hitler is unwilling to commit to such an advance. With the Northern Flank secure he orders the bulk of the armor German forces to advance South into the Steppes. The Soviets fall steadily back, but significant pockets are captured making it difficult to stop the Germans. Rommel reaches Astrakhan by late August thereby cutting off all rail, pipeline and river traffic from the Caucasus. The Soviets make a determined stand on the Kuma River but are badly flanked. September 1942 The Soviet forces in the Caucasus are rulled back deep into the mountains. Grozny and most of the Soviet Oil Fields are now in German hands. Few have been captured intact. But Most critically the Soviets now have very limited fuel to supply their own armor forces. Moslem areas in the Mountains now rise up to welcome the Germans. Only Tyulenev's Trans Caucasus Front manages to hold onto Batumi. October 1942 German troops consolidate their hold on the Southern Conquests. The bulk of the German armor forces go into reserve along the Front. While the Germans are stretched very thin, they do have a significant armor reserve. Also the 11th Army has been released from the Crimea and strenghtes the Don-Volga line. General Zhukov has been sent to Saratov to take Command of the Saratov Front and prepare another winter offensive. But the Germans have strong defensive lines, adequate reserves and a growing logistical base. Zhukov is already being hampered by a lack of fuel. Much of the Red Air Force has been grounded while Zhukov husbands precious oil for his tanks. * In our TL Bock kept the 4th Panzer army tied up until July 13th allowing most of the Soviets to escape the forming Don Pocket **In our TL Bock managed to pocket only 80,000 Soviets in part because of his slowness in using the 4th Panzer, in part because of Paulus straight forward advance, and finally because of more flexible Soviet doctrine. ***General Von Kliest of the 1st Panzer army wrote "The (4th Panzer) army could have taken Stalingrad without a fight in mid-July but was diverted South to help me cross the lower Don. I did not need its aid and it merely congested the roads I was using. When it turned north again, a fortnight later, the Russians had gatered sufficient forces at Stalingrad to check it." *****Stalingrad Front Breakdown in our TL as follows Formation Soviet German Divisions 26 28 Tanks 200 440 Manpower 414,000 427,000 Guns/Mortars 1,969 5,270 Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 3) Date: 30 May 2001 13:22:44 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if November 1942 The Germans have essentially entered defensive positions (a bit more elaborate than the hedgehogs of 41) as the Winter of 42 approaches. Now the action shifts to the other fronts. The Germans have shifted signficant air and naval resources to the far north, effectively shutting down the Murmansk runs. Stalin is exerting tremendous pressure on the allies to open a major second front immediately. He lets it be know through back channels that the USSR is not above making a separate peace with Germnay unless the US-UK can take some of the pressure off. Ironically the loss of the Iranian and Murmansk - Russia supply route and the allies have stockpiled significantly more men and material in England* General Gort is the new commander of the British 8th Army, following Auchinleck's failure to recapture Tobruk**. Gort Immediately begins to concentrate the bulk of the 8th Army on the Egyptian frontier. The German logistical tail is stretched very thin, as Tobruk can not be used to bring in significant supplies. The American Command is also badly shaken but the threat of Russia's withdrawal from the War. Operation Torch under Hewitt-Patton (Casablanca), Troubridge (RN) and US General Fredendall (- at Oran) and Burrough (RN) - Ryder (US) at Algiers is expanded. Significantly more forces are sent to Algiers and Patton is switched with Ryder. Patton's orders are to immediately exploit the landings and drive for Tunis. The Allied landings are very sucessful and Patton drives hard into Tunisia. The Germans are caught unprepared and steadily fall back. Meanwhile General Gort fixes the Africa Corps outside Tobruk in a fiece tank battle. Allied Air Superiority finally tips the scale and the Germans-Italians begin to fall back. In Europe Hitler orders the occupation of the rest of France (as he did in our TL) and appoints Kesselring C-in-C of the Mediterranean Front. He rushes troops to Sicily, Sardinia and Greece. He also begs Hitler to allow the withdrawal of the Africa Corp, but to no avail. December 1942 The Soviets launch a winter offensive around the Don-Stalingrad area. Zhukov shatters several Rumanian and Italian Divisions and drives into the German lines. The Germans however react swiftly. In appalling conditions, with temperatures always at least 10 degrees below zero Zhukov and Rommel fight a titanic tank battle. The scales are finally tipped in the German's favor because of the lack of air support for Zhukov's tanks. Time and again the Russians are stalled in front of batters of 88s and cut to pieces by Luftwaffe attacks. By the End of the month Zhukov is forced with withdraw, with high loses, but Rommel can show no grand encirclements. The Americans definitively tell Churchill that Operation Round-up - the cross channel invasion. Will take place in the spring or early summer of 1943. However some exploitive attacks will continue in the South. The Africa Corps surrenders (now about 150,000 Germans and 225,000 Italians) to General Gort and General Patton. A fierce debate now rages over the next proper target - should an immediate strike be launched against Sicily or the Italian mainland. A US Marine Division (raised from Pacific War Cadres) with UK and US infantry in support lands on Sardinia and with CV support manages to force the Germans off the Island. *During the Summer of 1942 over 2,800 tanks reached the USSR from the US/UK plus thousands of trucks, aircraft and locomotives. **In our TL Gort (One of the better Corp Commanders of the 8th Army) was killed when his plane was shot down, Monty was Gort's replacement and Churchill's 2nd choice. Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 4) Date: 07 Jun 2001 04:47:09 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if 1943 - Plans and changes As the new year dawns the Americans and British are forced to re-evaluate their roles in the war. The inability of Russia to expell the Germans means that a larger army (US) is a necessity to win a decisive victory on the continent of Europe. The American Joint Chief - Marshal decide to increase the overall division level to 150* and an expansion of the Marine Corps to 10-15 Divisions. Manpower will be a difficult issue. After much interservice fighting and domestic problems a number of all black divisions are slated to be raised. Also greater numbers of women and older men are enlisted (the men being drafted) for support positions. Some projects have to be moved down in priority and the Mahatten Project is one, its funding drops about 50%. The diversion of resources to Europe has slowed the Allied advance in the Pacific, but the Japanese are still clearly on the defensive. The Americans/British also learn about a disasterous Soviet attack in front of Moscow** The Soviet influence and importance to Allied (US/UK) is now much debated. While they are tying down the bulk of the German Army, them do not seem capable of winning against the Germans in a stand-up battle. Parodoxically the Soviets are also re-evaluating their role in the war. The Defeats of 1941 and 1942 couple with the fall of Stalingrad and the failure of Mars makes Stalin dubious that he can gain a military victory. Should he bleed Russia dry fo the benefit of the English and Americans? Should he cut a deal. Cautiously peace feelers*** are extended. The Germans also are planning for the comming year. Russia seems crippled. Some oil, soon to be significant amounts, is flowing from the captured fields in the Caucasus. But, the Russians remain defiant. A debate rages inside the High Command as to whether to adopt a defensive position on the Eastern Front and shift Resources West, or to gamble on one more knock-out blow against the USSR. Most of the professionals (led by Halder) favor a Shift to the West, but Hitler sees the destruction of Moscow as the death of the USSR. Tentatively he approves Operation Citadel****. But, events may change all plans 1943 January The Americans transfer 1 regular and 2 newly raised marine divisions to the ETO, and promise two more. Amphibious operations in the Med are placed under Naval command (Admiral Hewitt) in a unified fashion as they are in the Pacific. A debate now rages between Gort and Patton. Gort favors a follow up invasion of Sicily. Patton wants to bypass the Island and land instead on the Italian mainland. February The Mars offensive ends on the Eastern Front. Stalin sends out peace feelers, this time via the Japanese. The Japanese eagerly press their German allies to consider the Soviet proposals. Hitler is cool to the idea, but somewhat ironically Himmler is supportive***** Hitler continues to transfer troops and tanks for the upcoming June attack on Moscow, but low level talks with the Soviets do go on. Thanks to ULTRA the US and UK soon know of the talks. In Italy Mussolini is removed from power although the Facist Council continues to rule. March The Italians approach the Americans to end the war. Several anti-Mussolini Generals are discouraged and appalled at the USAF attacks on Italy. Domestic Italian morale has largely collasped. The Italians ask for Allied landings to support the defection. The US desperate to show the Soviets that they can open up a real 2nd Front agree to land a Marine Divison and an Airborne Divison at Rome (Covered by Sardinian based planes). General Gort will land in Sicily with 4 US and 4 UK divisions. April The Italian defection takes place. The US landings in Central Italy take the Germans by complete suprise. By the time they can react the Lower 1/2 of the Country is in allied hands. Kesselring forms a defensive line around Florence and rushes German troops in the South along the Adriatic coast, North to fill out the line. Still over 100,000 germans will surrender. The Marine/Airborne Divisions can keep another 150,000 contained however. Hitler is outraged by the defection and belatedly realizing the Allied threat now response more positively to Soviet/Japanese peace feelers. The great sticking point however is how much territory the USSR will regain. Hitler balks at any demands in the South. For now little can be accomplished. *In our TL initially the US planned for a 100 division army. In fact we never approached that number, but the US concept of Regimental Combat teams meant that a significant amout of artillery, armor and support were not attached to individual divisions - so in fact the US 'had' more divisions that it would first appear. **In our TL this was Operation Mars - set by Zhukov to follow up Uranus (Stalingrad). It was a near complete bust costing the Russians about 250,000 troops with little to show for the attack ***Similar to the 'Bulgarian' ploy in 1941 where Stalin floated via the Bulgarian ambassador some armistice talk. ****In our TL the codename for the attack at Kursk, here the German planned attack against Moscow in the early summer of 1943 *****In our TL Himmler tried to cut a deal with the US to surrender varioius units well in advance of the actual collaspe of the Nazi state. I don't think it is too great a stretch to see him tying to push though an end to one of the fronts. Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 5) Date: 07 Jun 2001 16:38:38 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if 1943 May The allies take stock of the situation. The English are pressing for further action in the Med, but the Americans are interested in a cross channel invasion in the summer of 1943. This would mean that landing craft would have to be divereted from the Med NOW* The Americans reluctantly agree, but a navy run invasion is being planned as opposed to the mixed army-navy show that was Overlord. 5 Marine Divisions will be landed with 2 Airborne. Additionally if the Pacific Fleet can be spared significant capital assets will be shifted for the Invasion. Italy has quickly stabilized as the US and UK rush troops onto the penisular. The English and Americans now plan a series of small scale amphibous operations in the Med - potential targets include Corsica (with a nomial german garrison), Rhodes (recently taken from the Italians by the Germans), Greece, Crete, and perhaps Southern France or the Adriatic coast. On the Eastern Front the Russians launch a series of fairly effective local attacks. Directely mainly at Hungarian, Romanian and Italian troops they rupture the German front in several places. But the German armor reserves in the South under Rommel quickly limit the damage. Still it keeps the Germans focused on the Eastern Front. The bulk of Soviet efforts go into building up the Moscow front which Stalin knows will be the primary German summer target** June The Germans have delayed the Moscow operation again and again (to await more Tiger tanks and to stablize the Situation in the South, now the attack date is set for early July*** The German plan is for a double envelopment with a Northern Panzer Army Group under Guardian and a Southern Panzer Army Group under Rommel. The Soviets have committed most of their armor and gas to this battle. In the Pacific the Americans have decided (in part thanks to a surplus of Marine Divisions) to launch a series of attacks in the North. The Americans (with the 7th Infanry and 7th Marine) have cleared Attu by June 1st**** Soon the 130th Infantry Division and the 10th Marine will form Two Corps and will be slated for a campaign in the Kurile Islands***** The tenative landings are set for August (with landing craft available thanks to the postponement of Overlord). In Italy the Americans and British make two amphibous landings behind German lines forcing Kesselring to pull out of the temporary Florence line to one farther North. The British also have decided to occupy Rhodes and the Americans Corsica. Italy will be a lower priority. July The German Eastern Offensive opens with horrific loses on both sides. Guardarian and Rommel handle their Panzers better than Hoth and Model******but can not immediately break the Soviets. General Vlasov******* fights a classic infantry battle. With deep defensive lines the Germans pay for every mile gained. The Russians might be able to counterattack, but the Luftwaffe (thanks to a critical shortage of aviation fuel in the Red Air Force) breaks up any massing of Soviet tanks. The Battle rages almost three weeks. The Germans gain almost 75 miles, but pocket no significant Soviet armies. Worse the cream of the German armor on the Eastern Front is spent. Few immediately recognize it but in fact the 2nd Battle for Moscow is the critical battle on the Eastern Front. In the Med the Americans occupy Corsica against only light resistance (the Germans have withdrawn their garrison) and the British take several Greek islands with more significant losses. Part 6 to come *Fortunately in this TL landing craft did not slip down the priority chain like they did in our TL, in part due to freeing up more resources. **This is largely due to the Soviet spy network (the Lucy Network) in Germany and limited intelligence passed on to the Soviets by the Allies. ***As in our TL the Kursk offensive was delayed by Hitler (Fatally) until July 9th, allowing as here the Soviets to build up very impressive defenses. ****In our TL the 7th Infantry alone took the Island by May 29th. The Japanese evacuated Kiska shortly afterward. *****In our TL the Americans attempted to make the Japanese believe they were going to invade the Kurile's through most of 43 and 44. Here with more infantry they will actually go for it. ******These were the German commanders in our TLModel had the 9th Army and Hoth had the 4th Panzer. Here the Germans have 2 Panzer armies thanks to lower loses in 42. *******In our TL Vlaslov was captured in 41 and eventually formed an anti-communist Russian army (POA). Here he avoided capture and as one of Stalin's favorites (as well as someone responsible in part for the Victory before Moscow in 41) he gets tactical command. Zhukov thanks to his defeats in Stalingrad and Operation Mars is not so favored. Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 6) Homefront USA Date: 10 Jun 2001 00:49:57 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if 1943 As the Americans expand their manpower base by drafting more men a very curious problem arises. With millions more in the services (US had 12 million at a high average in this TL it is approaching 16 million), the voting patterns are beginning to shift. While Blacks have been inducted, their numbers as percentages are much lower than whites. In fact due to early Service discrimination many 1-A blacks were classified as 4-F and rejected. Now of course this manpower pool is being re-examined. But not before it begins to have an impact on the 'Solid South' and the Industrialized North. Joe Louis (the fighter and staunch Republican) has become the figurehead for a Black voter registration movement in the South. In this he has strong support from Republicans in the House and Senate* Moving in several districts of Virginia, NC, Tennessee and Louisiana the bribe, conjole, threaten and subvert to get Federal marshals to standbye while various black women register to vote. The white registrars are unable to use violence openly (especially on women) and in many districts significant numbers of Negro voters are on the roles. The Senate in particular howls in protest over the Republican move, in particular Mississppi Senator Bilbo** The Blacks that have migrated to the North however have also registered, now in larger numbers. Some liberal Democrats, like Sol Bloom of NYC, break with Roosevelt seeing an electorial disaster if these voters switch to Republicans in the Industrial cities. He comes out to support the Registration drive. Arguements are made in many papers that if American is to fight tyranny abroad, than it must be extinguished at home as well. The results in the South as Louis tries to extend his campaign are a series of vicious race riots. Ironically the Federal government has ready troops to restore order (most state National guard units have early on been sent overseas), and they are black*** As then enter several Southern Cities, counties and townships the worst nightmares of segregationist have come true. In many rural areas for the first time the Klan is roughly handled as the more numerous (and in many cases now weapon trained and on leave) blacks meet violence with violence. As spring turns to summer the whole South seems a simmering pot just waiting to boil over. Finally Roosevelt throws his weight beind the Louis registration program, where numbers now skyrocket and go from 90% Republican to a 50% split. Many Southern Senators now bolt the party forming the Dixiecrat/Constitutional Party. It will make the eleciton of 1944 very, very interesting. A second side effect of more drafts is the rise of a more vocal women's movement, but that is for another Homefront story. *In our TL the Republicans at several times pushed various measure for voting rights to embarrass Roosevelt. White Democratic representatives from the South were very very uneasy with even the minor moves Roosevelt made towards equality. Here they see an opportunity with many missing white voters to significantly intervene. **Yes that is his real name. A supreme racist he constantly tried to introduce legislation to ship Black Americans to Africa. ***Like the Tuskagee airmen in our TL several regiments and divisions that are black were held back in the US for training, training and more training. Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 7) Date: 12 Jun 2001 03:51:18 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if August 1943 The Americans are finally convinced by the British that a cross channel invasion in 1943 is no practicable. However the Americans do have 5 Marine and 2 US Airborne Divisions trained for landings and ready in England. Before Summer is over their is only one target open. Norway. While the Germans have significant air assets they are relatively weak on the ground. Plus with carriers and some long range bombers the Allies can achieve local superiority. Still to keep out of range of Luftwaffe reinforcements and Army support the Landings are limited to North and Central Norway. US Marines come ashore at Four Points - Vostfjorden (Narvik), Namous, Trondheim and Andalsnes. The Germans are caught (rather like the Norwegians in 40) badly off guard. Hitler had sent one Panzer Division into Norway for a projected invasion of Sweden*, but it was withdrawn, now the Americans face light infantry divisions. With the 82 Airbornes capture of the Trondheim airfields and the 101 Capture of Narvik the issue is never seriously in doubt. Luck also favors the allies as the port at Trondheim and Andalsnes are taken largely intact** American armor is soon ashore at first supported by the Navy LSTs and later by the captured ports. A fierce battle developes along the two Southern axis of Allied advance - The Tynset to Elverum drive down the Glomma and the Dombas to Lilliehammer drive down the Gudbrandsdalen with the joint goal being Oslo. The Germans hury what limited reinforcements they have to support their Norwegian garrison, but the allies can put 2-3 Divisions on the ground for every one the Germans can get thru from Denmark. Despite high loses the Americans advance. In the Pacific the Major new operation is an invasion by 2 Marine and 3 'Negro' Division land in the Kurlie Islands. The Japanese have hurriedly reinforced the garrisons, but the Americans isolate each island and reduce it in turn. Casualties are however gruesom. In some of the Marine and Negro regiments they exceed 80% of effectives. Any follow up landings are rejected until more complete air and naval superiority can be gained. September The Battle for Oslo rages for most of the month until the last German troops are pulled back into Denmark. The allies 'win' a ruined city. More critically however they have opened up a whole new front for the Germans to worry about. Allied Bombers can now be escourted over much of Northern Germany. Also the Russian support via Murmansk is now open. Vital supplies, particularly aviation fuel is poured into Russia. In the South the British counduct several large raids on Greece and Yugoslavia. The Bulgarians also open talks with the English about defecting from the Axis alliance. Hitler meanwhile, after the failure to take Moscow in 43, is outraged at his generals for the survival of the USSR. Reluctantly he agrees to support major concession to end the war in the East. Parroting his position of 39 he is willing to get a non-aggression pact with the USSR in return for a free hand in the West. Stalin's position is firm. German withdraw for the pre-1938 borders of the USSR. Hitler can not accept this and several months (winter) are wasted as Japanese intermediaries seek a solution. October American subs now enter the Baltic. Sweden is notified that any maritime taffic with Nazi Germany is subject to siezure and sinking.*** Swedish ships are soon confined to harbor as American, British and some Russian subs make travel impossible. Ironically the submarine war is being turned fatally against the Germans who must have the ore. In Bulgaria the situation has changed dramatically with the death of King Boris****The British faction stages a coup and invite an allied landing. Two British divisions land in Bulgarian occuppied Greece. Again the Germans are caught badly off guard. The bulk of their Balkan army is tied up in Yugoslavia, with another section in Greece fighting the partisans. Troops are rushed from the lands in occuppied Russia, but the main front is hundreds of miles away. November The Russians begin to build up decent levels of aviation fuel. They are also aided by increased shipments of American supplies (on Russian ships) sent into the Far Eastern provinces. The Americans are advancing across the Pacific justly slightly (2-3 months) behind our TL, but due to increased divisions will soon make up the lost time. The Germans do launch a major offensive in Italy (under Guardarian) and push the allies back to the older Florence line. However it is a brutal slugging match with the Germans loses disproporationately in tanks thanks to growing allied tactical air superiority. December The Year ends with a worsening situation for the Germans. Although they hold most of their early conquests they are under increasing pressure on all fronts. In particular the failure ot knock out the USSR and the necessity to keep almost 2/3 of the Army in the East means the West can effectively cut away the extended parts of the Reich. In the Pacific the Americans have decided to add a third general avenue of advance for the comming year. The Kurile Island campaign is over but landings on the main islands are rejected. The only remaining targets are Hokkaido, Sakhalin and Korea. Korea is rejected out of hand as too deep in the Sea of Japan, and the Japanese still had significant Naval and air units. Hokkaido is one of the home islands and likely to be heavily defended***** The joint Chief support a landing on Sakhalin. It has no support now from Japan. The Soviets might be willing to trade for it (particularly useful perhaps to keep them in the war) and it would help open up the Sea of Japan for US naval and air forces. *The 25th Panzer was sent in our TL but later withdrawn for Kursk. **The Germans unlike their treatment of the French Ports did not extensively mine the infrastructure of their Norwegian ports, although some reading sugguest Bergen and Stavanger were exceptions. ***The bulk of Germany's high grade iron ore, so vital for the war effort, and a good deal of Germany's alternate supply of ball bearings came from Sweden via a coastal trade. ****As in our TL Boris died, at best guess of natural causes, his heir was underage and the Generals were soon struggling for power. Bulgaria had never declared war on the USSR and handed over relatively few of its' Jews. It was however involved in pacification programs in its new 'greek' territories (Macedonia) *****In this TL the bulk of the Japanese troops sent to garrison the Kurlie islands would wind up in Hokkaido, something like 250,000 troops. Probably more than enough given the difficult terrain, significant Japanese air and naval assets, to stop a major invasion. Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 8) 1944 Date: 15 Jun 2001 04:19:29 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if 1944 January The US/UK are putting some pressure on the Swedes to open an overland and naval (Baltic) route to the USSR. They are both also putting out active feelers to the Finns to end the Winter (Continuation) War. The Finns exploit the desire of the Allies to open the Route and ask them to intercede with the Russians for a new settlement. In difficult negotiations the Russians agree to a return to pre-1939 borders with Finland and a return of all POW. At the end of the month Finland announces that they are withdrawing from the war. There are substantial German troops in the North of the Country* and they are now trapped between the Allies in Norway, neutral Sweden, the Russians and the now neutral Finns. The bulk of the German troops wind up retreating into Sweden (with covert permission of both the Swedes and the Allies) where they are interned for the remainder of the war. Meanwhile the Airwar over Germany is growing steadily worse for the German's. With new bases in Norway a great swath of Northern Germany is now open to heavy Bombing by the new 12th USAAF. Escorted by P-47** the Bombers began heavy raids on many of the Northern targets. Further the German U-boat threat has also received a blow as the Northern bases and Norwegian bases are either under constant airborne observation/attack or have been overrun. Now the Germans have only the French, Dutch and (threatened) German coast. Several new German divisions have been rushed to Denmark, included 2 Panzer Divisions in case the allies try an immediate attack. In the East Stalin opens up the third great Winter offensive. This time the Germans are hurt and hurt bad. Already stretched thin thanks to the diverson of troops to Italy and Denmark the Russians break the German front in several locations. Soviet loses are however excessive as the Germans are fighting in several excellant and well prepared defensive positions. The Russians push the Germans back towards Smolensk. The Battle of Smolensk will drag on for over a month. In the end the Germans are forced to withdraw, leaving a shattered city. In the Balkans the Bulgarian declaration of neutrality has been temporarily recognized by the Germans. The Bulgarians have kept the British out of Bulgaria (While surrendering the holding in Macedonia to the British). The Germans are rushing troops into Romania to hold the Ploiesti oil fields and the Ports of Odessa and Constanta (transhipment points for Caucasus oil) February Sweden is under intense allied pressure. Modeling a deal with the allies like they one they had with the Germans they agree to ship Soviet Lend Lease supplies acorss Sweden to Stockholm and ship them to Viipui (Finnland) where they will be transfered to the Russians. In the Balkans there is open rebellions in Greece. Allied Fighters and bombers based in Italy coupled with partisan actions in Yugoslavia have effectively isolated the German garrison. The British divisions in Greece are tied down because of the ongoing Greek Civil War*** The Germans are compelled with withdraw from Greece, but the British can not effectively exploit the vacuum. March The Americans land 5 Divisions in Southern France in operation Anvil**** This landing is quickly exploited by General Patch's 7th Army. The US 3rd, 36th, 45th, 121st and 130th****** supported by the 11th Armor (Negro) and the 2 Marine Divisions. It is a critical blow to the Italian front. Rapidly Nice falls to the 11th Armor and the Entire German position in Northern Italy is unhinged. Hitler commits a bulk of his reserves to stopping the 7th Army's advance. By the 24tth the 11th Panzer in conjunction with several German infancy divisions stop the Americans at Grenoble, well South of the major objective of Lyons. Initialy the battles are rather fluid, but each side quickly rushes troops to support the front. The Germans are rather more sucessful, managing to push the Americans back out of Grenoble and to stop the flanking drive along the Rhone. But as the Americans set up forward air bases the German tanks loses skyrocket and they can advance no farther. April The Americans are redeploying the bulk of their landing craft to England. Operation Overlord is set for May. The British 8th Army (the bulk of the troops in Italy) break the Milan line and the Germans retire almost completely out of Italy. Coastal Yugoslavia is open to Allied penetration and supply. The British are also reinforcing their troops in the Balkans. Pressure is being put on the Bulgarians by both sides to enter the war. In the Pacific the American progress conforms basically to our TL. Except that somewhat more resources are available in terms of manpower. But some significant changes are beginning. For example the japanese Army has redeployed significant number of units to the home islands, this precluded the great 'Rice and Bomber offensives of April 44/45*******The Japanese do however go forward with the Battle of Kohima and the disasterous attack on Imphal. The Americans are still readying for the Invasion of Guam and a possible attack in the far North *As in our TL there were significant German troops in Northern Finland which actually fought a rather brutal war with the former allies until they were forced out of the Country. **The Thunderbolt was a good fighter, very heavily armed but with a relatively short range or about 650miles. This made it unsuitable for escorted daylights raids and it wasn't until the Mustang came on line that the B-17s/B-24s got decent escorts ***I hesitate to open this can of worms but would refer any interested read to 'Inside Hitler's Greece' by Mark Mazower for a readable history of just how splintered the Greek resistance movement. ****This was the best coordinated landing in the Med in our TL. Admiral Hewitt properly coordinated it and it was very well done. In part because he understood that the American OR the British doctrine of amphibious landings had to be selected - either one or the other. No hideous mix like the Normandy plan. ******The later two divisions are part of the secondary wave of divisions raised by the US in this TL. *******The 'Ichi-Go attacks were designed to overun the allied bases and Japanese Cities at Changsha, Hengyang, Lingling, Kweilin, Luchow and Nanning - which was launched in June of 44 and ended in Nov of 44 with the fall of Nanning. Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 9) The Homefront Date: 15 Jun 2001 15:34:26 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if 1944 in the USA The Coming congressional and presidential elections are shaping up to be a complete free for all. The Republican tactic of embracing civil rights and using some cooperative federal marshals to enforce it has splintered the Democratic party. The Solid South has bolted. Dixiecrats have formed the Jefferson Party to run on a 'preserve the white South' ticket. Negros (Blacks) have split between embracing the self serving Republican gambit and the liberal wing of the Democratic Party - which is very restive under Henry Wallace. Roosevelt is forced to make up his mind as to whether to actively seek the Democratic nomination.* The Strain of the domestic political problem is however too great. With an accelerated cigarette habit he suffers a major stroke on February 14, 1944 and dies two days later. Henry Wallace is now President. Wallace moves to embrace the more liberal domestic policies that he is so fond of, and quickly alienates many of Roosevelts Southern Supporters** More Democrats bolt for the Jefferson Party. Casting about to find a way to unite the Party Wallace courts the Senator from Missouri - Harry S. Truman. A moderate on civil rights, a crusader on war production corruption and a stalwart inside the party he hopes that Truman can hold at least the upper South in the Party. But as the convention nears it is no where assured that Wallace will even capture the nomination Truman relucatantly embraces a fusion ticket with Wallace for the good of the party, although he has a very low opinion of Wallace himself.*** The Democratic ticket for 44 will be Wallace-Truman, but a significant number of Deep Southern states are now solidly Jeffersonian (dixiecrat) - although Texas is won back into the Democratic fold. The Dewey lead Republican ticket is unified, the election of 44 does however have a few more suprises coming. *In our TL he played it very coy. Waiting until the convention 'demanded' that he be drafted. Then he ditched Wallace in favor or Turman (or Douglas). **Like Rayburn in Texas who was instrumental in 48 in keeping the Dixiecrats from capturing the Texas Democratic party. ***Now there is an understatement in our TL. Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 10) The East Date: 15 Jun 2001 22:33:01 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if The East 1944 The slow progress of the Russian armies before Moscow means that Stalin can see less benefit for a continuation of the war. True the closing of the Finnish front has eased the flow of supplies to Russia, but the Germans still hold far too much Russian territory. As the allies make steadily more progress in the West the Germans become much more willing to cut a deal with Stalin. By the Spring Stalin is faced with a Cruel choice. He can launch a great spring/summer offensive to clear the Germans out of Belorussia or perhaps the Don area. It is likely to push the Germans back, but not likely to completely expell them from Rodinia. It will however benefit the allies (UK/US) who are likely to make great progress in France and the Balkans. Alternatively the Germans are now eager to reach a settlement. Beria is dispatched to Stockholm to meet with Himmler.* Hitler offers to return the Don immediately and to gradually withdraw from Russia and Belorussia. But the Germans are to retain the Baltic states, the pre-1938 Polish border and certain economic rights to Ukrainian grain and Cacasus oil. The Ukraine remains the sticking point as Hitler is anxious to retain some degree of control over the basin. The Allies, thanks to Ultra and Magic**, almost immediately get wind of the German proposal. Wallace is sympathtic to the Soviet position, much to the horror of Churchill who is beginning to believe the Russians have outlived their usefulness. Wallace dispatches a special trade mission to Russia to offer increased aid and a generous Eastern settlement if they remain in the war. They arrive in early April just as the Americans begin making significant progress in Italy and France. Stalin plays the allies off against the Germans. Each offer of aid is 'leaked' to the Germans and each German concession quickly reaches the allies. One of Stalin's early demands of the allies is a promise to return historic Soviet Territory in the Pacific. This includes not only Sakhalin Island but also Port Arthur. Further territorial 'spheres of influnce' as demanded in Iran, Romania, Turkey, Finland, and China. Fatally for Stalin's dealings with the allies he also demands that they recognize the 1940 Soviet boundry with Poland. The Americans and to a lesser degree the British are unhappy with this demand, but it is not seen as critical. Unfortunately a Polish national in the British employ sees the demanded concession (which he reports in an even more exaggerated form of outright Polish incorporation into the USSR), which is leaked to various anti-communist officials in both the US and USSR. This is the famous Voice of Danzig communique. In the US the Republicans make a campaign issue out of some of the leaked (and exaggerated) demands. They argue that America is bearing the burden of the war materially and in terms of loses*** Although Dewey will not directly attack President Wallace many (like Taft) are far less hesitant. The Republicans threaten to end lend lease to the USSR unless Stalin publically drops his demands and promises to contiue in the alliance. Here they have overplayed their hand. Wallace opens a broad counterattack against the Republicans claiming they are interefering with the running of the war. Here he finds a receptive ear in many of the Urban electorate. Some Republicans are also unhappy over the whole civil rights gambit. Now Dewey faces challenges inside his own party. *Of course Molotov and Von Ribbonstropp are the titular heads of the delgations. **The Americans read the Japanese ambassador's communication to Tokyo from Berlin as they had the Japanese diplomatic code early in 1940. ***The Americans are suffering higher ground loses in this TL as they have far more divisions in contact with the Germans both in Italy and in France. Pacific loses have also been higher. Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 11) Date: 18 Jun 2001 06:44:01 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if Summer 1944 May The Great Cross Channel invasion is launched. The Americans land 9 Divisions* (7 Marine, 2 Army) plus 3 Airborne Divisions. The attack is preceded by shore bombardments lasting over 12 hours, as became more standard in the Pacific. Few German fortified points survive in tact. Fewer armor divisions are available to rush to the beaches as the allies have drained off a great number in the battles in Southern France. Further and more dramatically the landings come not in Normany but on the Belgium/French border. The German 15th Army is here, but many divisions have been stripped. The Destroyers in particular do yeoman work with their 5 inch guns, several nearly grounding as they bound the beaches. Allied Aircover is also intense with over a dozen speically trained close support groups/squadrens (USMC) providing cover. Nothing can move from or to the beaches. Still the German units do not surrender so much as break apart as their C-in-C system is shattered. By 24 hours into the Operation all 5 beaches are well secured and armor is being landed. 48 Hours into the operation the German line has buckled completely. No reserves can move up and the Allies are pouring troops into France. Now the German face a cruel dilema. General Salmuth's 15th Army nominally had to cover the coast from Le Havre to just Shouth of Rotterdam. He should have had 7 Panzer Divisions, but 4 have been sent South to reinforce General Wieses 19th Army** Unlike Normandy the Country off the beaches here is ideal for tanks and tank killing aircraft. The Americans soon activate their 3rd Army under Patton who swings North towards Brusssels and their 1st Army under Hodges who swings South towards the Seine. The German 1st Army (Chevalerie) is pulled back from the Bay of Biscay to reinforce the 19th Army and the German Sevent Army is stripped from Normady/Brittany to stop the Americans North of Paris. The Americans don't take any port intact, but they do take them with less structural damage. Until they can be brought into full operation the Mullberries will function as manmade ports***The American and soon Canadian armies are ashore and trying to cut off the 3 German armies in the West. June Himmler flies to Moscow to sign the armistice with Stalin. Germany has agreed to evacuate all of Russia, Bellorussia and the Ukraine. Stalin has agreed to oil shipments, grain shipments and a limited military presence withing 150 kilometers of the Russian Border with the Baltic States, Poland, Bessarabia and Prussia. It is doubtful if he will keep his word, but it does free up dozen of German army divisions and hundreds of aircraft. The German evacuation is to be in three stages (each taking roughly 1 month), first the Germans pull out of the Don region, including the Caucasus. Next is a staged retreat to the Desna/Dniepr and finally back to the border. As the Germans retreat the Russians move in, but find large bands of anti-communist guerrilas operating, the Germans have left significant quanties of light arms, communication gear, supplies and support for the various factions. The Russians will eventually crush the rebels, but it significantly slows the extension of communist control, particularly over the Causasus. The American advance into Northern France and Belgium has stalled. The two American Armies simply can not be supported offensively until more tonnage can be brought in. Still the Germans do with draw from Normandy, Brest and South of the Seine. A British army (really just 2 divisions, one of which is Canadian) under the newly promoted, but untested, Montgomery lands in Normandy after light resistance and advances. July The Allies issue the London Communique promising to restore Poland to its pre-1939 Boundries. Lend Lease is cut off to the Soviet Union and many Western communist bitterly denouce Stalin's new non-aggression pact with Hitler. The Allies grow ever more strident as the Germans rush armor divisions into Belgium and not only stop Patton's advance put destroy several US divisions in a bloody battle around Brussels. Only the pressure of the Allied advance from the South and against Paris brighten the otherwise bleak picture. The Germans are compelled to pull out of Paris, but not before setting off literally thousands of explosions**** Arc de Triumph is blasted, the Eifle (sp?) tower is blown and Notre Dame burned. Late in July Hitler is attending a meeting in his concrete bunker regarding the situation in the West. Suddenly an explosion rips through the concrete structure. The enclosed nature of the building concentrates the blast, killing Hitler and critically injuring Himmler.***** The SS is temporarily decapitated and the plotters move to take control. It is rather a comic opera affair until two army Groups (Rommel's now arriving in strenght from Russia and having just defeated the Americans in Belgium and Von Manstein's now in Romania and Yugoslavia.) declare for the new Government and send representatives to the allies requesting terms. President Wallace flies to London to meet with Churchill. Winston is adament that the Germans must never be a threat to England and the West Again, but is also fearful that the Russians will gain a foothold in the Balkans or Baltic. He wants Germany as a counterweight against Russia. The Allies offer a 1 month Armistice during which they will suspend daylight/night bombing of Germany. But in return the Germans must evacuate France, Belgium, Yugoslavia, Denmark, Romania and Hungary. All Allied Prisoners are immediately to be repatriated, German POWs are to remain in Allied hands. Allied Planes are to be allowed complete freedom to supervise the German withdraw and no permanent defensive works may be contructed. Further three allied Divisions are to be stationed 'across' the Rhine and no German division may be located withing 10 miles of the Allied unitss More severe terms can be expected to follow, but the German army will be allowed to retreat into Germany. Germany should not be expected to retain ANY possession taken after September 1939, or any country annexed by force. These issues will however be addressed in a peace treaty which will be hammered out in Washington. August The German delegation arrives in Washington. President Wallace and Prime Minister Churchill have been confering as the German evacuations continue (both in the East and the West). The Soviets are pressing for a seat at the table and are offering to enter the Pacific war in return for a role in setting up the New Europe. Inside German there is a great deal of chaos. The Army has absorbed the Waffen SS - in fact taking a good deal of their equipment to rearm regular divisions. Most of the Remaining SS divisions are now 'light' and stationed in the East (Poland). The Camps are being hastily shut down. Although over 2 million are dead, significant numbers will survive. The Army is clearly in control of the Country as the civilian plotters have been brushed aside (several in fact arrested and held without charge). Goering has some power as most of the Luftwaffe officers are loyal. Goebbels is the defacto party leader and is trying to rally the faithful, but is cautious not to antagionize the army openly. For now a military Junta is running Germany. *This is howmany that the Allies landing in Operation Huskey the invasion of Sicily. **The 1st Army and the 19th Army (Wiese) are under Army Group G, The Northern Army Group 'B has the 7th Army (Dollman at Normandy) and the 15th (Salmuth). Salmuth had in our TL 5 Panzer Division active and two Fromer or refitting - including the 1st SS, 2, Panzer and the Panzer Lehr. However 3 of these were SOUTH of the river Sein and one was almost on the Rhine. So to oppose a landing at Doulogne/Calais Salmuth only has the 2nd Pazer plus the follwing Infantry Divisions 49th, 326th, 47th and in immediate reserve the 48th, 19 GAF, 326th, 344th, 85th, 348th and 245th. I am assuming these divisions would be present in this TL was that is roughly what was on hand in our TL. ***These artificial harbors have been much debated. Three were used for Normandy with only one surviving very long until wrecked by a storm. The navy did however supply the Normandy beachhead with LSTs afterward. With three oeprational until the storms of early and mid-June the logistical bottleneck for the allies is more open here. ****Paris was heavily mined and Hitler did intend that the city should be gutted rather than declared open and captured in tact. In this TL his officers were a little bit more loyal and a little more Hun *****In our TL the July plot/bomb failed in part because the meeting was rescheduled from the smaller concrete bunker to a larger wooden cabin. It significantly effected the kill radius of the blast. I include Himmler here because in this TL his 'deal' with Stalin would have raised his stock and Himmler was angling for an army Command. Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 12) - Peace Conference Date: 20 Jun 2001 03:49:10 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if September 1944 The Allies are having a difficult time with the negotations. Wallace is not at all supportive of the British Empire and is more sympathtic to the USSR.* Churchill is never going to allow a Stalin to get his hands on Eastern Europe. The allies do expand their occupation zones to include Slovakia, Czech heartland, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (these last three have only British troops as the Americans refuse to send garrisons). Allied observers are also stationed at various frontiers to insure the Germans are not fortifiying any positions. All U-boats have returned to German bases. The Germans have pulled out of the conquored territories but gruesome stories of death camps and slave labor are spreading in the West. The Luftwaffe is tactically recovering somewhat as its personnel get valuable training time and a break from cruel loses. The Army is also refroming several divisions with new and better equipment. At some point Wallace and Churchill understand the territorial gains of the armistice will begin to be set off by the military recover inside Germany. Negotiations drag on in Washington. The British are arguing that Germany must be absolutely stipped of any ability to project naval power (no capital ships, no subs, no naval air force). The Americans agree but also (this position being supported by the French) worry about the army. They would like to see it restricted in size, but fear that too stringent a reduction would force the Germans to fight. The French and to a lesser degree the Italians are also angling for a seat at the table. The minor powers (Poland, Czechs, Yugoslavs, Norwegians, Dutch, Belgiums, etc) all have demands of there own. The big unponderable is Stalin. He wants the Baltic states, and the post 1940 border with both Poland and Romania. The Poles will have no part of this (ironically this makes them almost de facto allies with Germany). The Final stages of the German withdraw in the East are no complete. The Red Army/Air Force has been largely rebuilt and is preparing to Enter Eastern Europe. October Churchill has decided to stall the conference himself. He feels that Wallace stands little chance in winning a victory in the upcoming elections. A republican President would seem a better partner in dealing with Russia. But Winston has trouble himself. While the returning POWs has given him a nice boost his domestic support is waning. The great war time PM may not be able to command a conservative majority when new elections are called. Internally Germany is also suffering paralysis. The Army has withdrawn from all foreign soil (at least what it considers foreign soil - Austria, parts of Tryolia, Danzig and the Sudentanland are still held by the Germans - although they were compelled to leave Alsace-Lorraine) but understands that Germany is surrounded and hopelessly outnumbered, a permanent peace is a necessity. The Nazi party and the reduced SS have found common cause in trying to reassert their authority, but the Army has removed any uniformed worker from the authority of the civilian (SS-Gestapo) controled police and courts. Military Courts have precedence and no uniformed soldier/worker can be tried or arrested by any other.** Here Goering has been useful as a conduit to the Nazies. Strangely it is the civilian population that is now deciding the fate of Germany. Many are openly critical of the Nazies (especially now that they are protected by Military Courts), Party membership is falling dramatically as old and new political parties are reborn. The stories coming out of the East are also discrediting the Nazi functionaries. The Army is trying to control this emerging tide of democracy, but with only limited success. The peace, if it can be won, will decide who rules what kind of Germany. In the Pacific the Americans are deeply involved in the Philippines. The Landings on Leyte are going well, but loses are high. The Americans are also using their Northern bases on occuppied Salhalin and the Kurlies to flood the sea of Japan and the coast with more subs (many freed up from Atlantic duty). In fact a good deal of shipping is now being transfered from the ETO to the Pacific. The Japanese merchant marine is rapidly disappearing as not only loses to subs but also Surface ships mount. November The elections More to come. *Wallace was not anti-English so much as anti-Imperial. He also was a great apologist for Stalin. In this TL however even he can't quite stomach what is seen as a second sell out of the west. **Under German law it was actually somewhat difficult for the SS-Gestapo to arrest a serving member of the military. They had the 'fog and night' order for civilians and usually could count on Hitler's People's Courts to issue the proper warrants, but the military jealously guarded its power. Of course almost EVERYONE in Germany got a uniform in WWII, so by extended the authority of military courts it would effectivly break the power of the Gestapo/People's Courts. Subject: Quiet Flows the Don (Part 13) Date: 26 Jun 2001 04:24:18 GMT From: gemellus@aol.com (Gemellus) Organization: AOL http://www.aol.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if November 1944 The Elections are thrown into an uproar when the Democratic Ticket of Wallace - Truman are blindsided. The guru letters* are leaked by the Jefferson Party ticket. Wallace's support goes into a tailspin. Dewey picks up most of the pieces and coasts to a victory. The Republicans even win a more stunning victory in the House and Senate** Wallace himself becomes deeply depressed over the defeat. The progressives inside the Democratic party are also devastated. When it is discovered that the worst blows against Wallace came from the Jefferson (bolted Southern Democrats) many in the party refuse to forgive them. While they have lost the election the liberals still solidly control the party. They are in no mood for compromise and embark on a program of massive reform. Attacking many of the corrupt party machines they seek to purge/purify the party. What emerges is a much small but much more liberal democratic party. The Jefferson Party becomes a much more regional affair. Cut off in many cases from the National democrats the Jeffersons form an odd mix of states rights and populist ideas. The Republican party undergoes the most profound evolution. Many of the democratic machines in the cities turn to the new Republican party. In particular the Irish Catholics and some Northern Blacks form a new/emerging core for an urban/liberal wing of the party. Now in many cities the Primary battles between the Republicans become the more important vote, than the general elections. December Wallace has quietly resigned himself to his defeat. With him has also died the idea of a United Nation. Dewey has publically declared that no great Transnational Government is possible. Instead he offers a permanent alliance with the UK, more a follow up to the Atlantic charter than a UN. Wallace does however push the Germans for an immediate end to the war. The German army agrees to sign an armistice with the US/UK to end the war. The Allies agree to recognize the right of Germans outside the pre-1937 boundries of Germany to vote for some union with Germany. Churchill however is determined to undermine an all powerful Germany inside Europe. His proposal is for a German Union with quasi-independent German states. Prussia, Hannover, Bavaria, the Rhineland and Austria are all singled out as potential states inside the union. Each to maintain a high degree of internal freedom and independence from the Greater German Union. Churchill wants to impose an imperial framework - with a restored German monarch (put not a Prussian!). Wallace is aghast, but the German army, particularly the officer corp is supportive of some sort of restoration of the monarchy. What is clear however is that nothing can be done until Dewey replaces Wallace.*** Internally in Germany the disarmament continues. The Navy has surrendered all its U-boats to the US/UK and is restricted to a small coastal force, ironically concentrated in ASW and mines. The Luftwaffe has surrendered a number of its jet fights/bombers for Allied Inspection. The Army has begun a slow de-mobilization of SS Divisions and many of the 2 and 3 wave divisions. This is all in accordance with the Armistice and agreed upon terms of the peace treaty. The Nazi Party rails against the 'unilateral' disarmament, but the German people are ready for peace. In the first local elections (Bavaria) the Nazi party is badly defeated the Reichstag national elections are scheduled for April, but already the party is losing power. January Stalin is determined that the USSR will gain some territorial advantage from the war. He begins to filter in large numbers of Russian backed 'rebels' into Eastern Poland, Rumania and the Baltic. They are sucessful in causing a near collaspes of the new civil authority along the border and in the Baltic a near complete breakdown of the civilian Governments. In the Pacific the Americans are faced with mounting loses in the Philippines. With no A-bomb in site it is recognized that Japan will have to be reduced. B-29s are already making their presence felt, and imports have already largely stopped. Still the Japanese refuse to discuss surrender. In China the US 8th Army in conjunction with the KWT are now operating in Southern Coastal China. The US 7th Army is preparing to land on Formosa in support of the 'liberation' of Hong Kong. The US 1st and 3rd Armies are being transfered from Europe. *Wallace had more than a couple of strange ideas, particularly when it came to religion. A number of letters he wrote in the early 40s surfaced in 44 and were held close by the Democratic powers that be, this was a major reason why he was dumped in 44 in favor of Truman. The man was just more than a little off **Basically a repeat of the 1946 elections ***Wallace had a deep prejudice against the British Imperial system, while Dewey was much more of an anglophile