Subject: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: 30 Sep 2001 18:29:44 -0700 From: sarcastic_jew@yahoo.com (Ivan Hodes) Organization: http://groups.google.com/ Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if This has been discussed, quite a bit, here and there, but I don't know as it's actually been directly addressed in vacuo (to use the same Latin phrase twice in a day). With a POD no later than the end of World War II, have Argentina enjoy a history as peaceful and prosperous as the postwar United States. That is to say: you can have civil disturbances and poverty, and you can have massive corruption and maybe some infringements upon civil rights here and there...but no caudillismo, no desparacidos, no Peronist thuggery, no atrocious and grinding rural poverty. A better challenge would be to set the POD *after* Peron took power. Ivan Hodes Subject: Re: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: Sun, 30 Sep 2001 22:27:13 -0400 From: "Mr. Reggie" Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 > With a POD no later than the end of World War II, have Argentina enjoy > a history as peaceful and prosperous as the postwar United States. Simple. Have them tack their currency onto the US dollar earlier, reduce protectionism, reduce taxes (but increase the _collection_ of those taxes), and slash domestic-spending earlier. Oh yeah, and no Falklands War. :-) Subject: Re: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2001 02:29:51 GMT From: "Charles Richards" Organization: Australia's most wanted man Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 Interesting, however before Peron took power Argentina was a first world country and if Peron had never existed if would be as rich as Canada and Australia by now, I suspect the Spanish culture of Argentina does not ensure a stable political system, it is a problem rife through out Latin Americia. If Argentina got invaded and settled by the British in the early 19th century it would have become a very stable dominion covering OTL Argentina, Southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay and be a very wealthy country by now with a Assimilated very small Hispanic minority. Subject: Re: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2001 00:07:05 -0300 From: Randy McDonald Organization: Posted via Supernews, http://www.supernews.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 Charles Richards wrote: > > Interesting, however before Peron took power Argentina was a first world > country and if Peron had never existed if would be as rich as Canada and > Australia by now, I suspect the Spanish culture of Argentina does not ensure > a stable political system, it is a problem rife through out Latin Americia. But Latin America is hardly a whole -- the only thing that your average third-generation Italo-Argentine in Buenos Aires are your Aymara-speaking Bolivian peasant might have in common would be the fact that the Bolivian might migrate to Argentina in the search for work. (Illegal exploitable immigrants are popular everywhere there are large income differentials.) It doesn't make much sense to group Argentina with Peru and Nicaragua. Rather, group it with Spain, Italy, Belgium, Québec, and France. Argentina's failure becomes more interesting in that light -- all of the other large, populous, modern, at least semi-industrialized Western Latin states did a great job of their modernization, and did so with fewer resources at their disposal than Argentina. Perhaps the key, here, is to get Argentina to enter the Second World War in 1940 or 1941 on the side of Britain, and to get Argentina included in the post-war multilateral liberalization of the world economy. Argentina's post-war economic decline would certainly be more difficult if it was subjected to the same kinds of US/British-guided fiscal constraints as France, or even Canada and Australia. (The same would go for Uruguay, which has suffered from the same kinds of problems as Argentina; I'm not sure about Chile.) > [deletia] -- Randy McDonald Charlottetown PEI Canada Subject: Re: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2001 20:56:38 GMT From: Noel Organization: http://www.newsranger.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 In article <3BB7DDD9.65A2@isn.net>, Randy McDonald says... > >Charles Richards wrote: >> >> Interesting, however before Peron took power Argentina was a first world >> country and if Peron had never existed if would be as rich as Canada and >> Australia by now, I suspect the Spanish culture of Argentina does not ensure >> a stable political system, it is a problem rife through out Latin Americia. (snip excellent arguments) >Perhaps the key, here, is to get Argentina to enter the Second World War >in 1940 or 1941 on the side of Britain, and to get Argentina included in >the post-war multilateral liberalization of the world economy. >Argentina's post-war economic decline would certainly be more difficult >if it was subjected to the same kinds of US/British-guided fiscal >constraints as France, or even Canada and Australia. ---This is a very cogent, well-argued thesis. I expect that it is correct. Had American aid eased the balance- of-payments crises that Argentina underwent after the war, it would have been much easier to avoid the bitter distributional battles that wrecked what was left of the country's economic and political system. An Argentina included in the Marshall Plan and a member of the Atlantic Alliance (which is not as large a stretch as it now seems) would be far more prosperous. Noel Subject: Re: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2001 19:17:46 -0300 From: Randy McDonald Organization: Posted via Supernews, http://www.supernews.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 Noel wrote: > > In article <3BB7DDD9.65A2@isn.net>, Randy McDonald says... > > > >[deletia] > > > >Perhaps the key, here, is to get Argentina to enter the Second World War > >in 1940 or 1941 on the side of Britain, and to get Argentina included in > >the post-war multilateral liberalization of the world economy. > >Argentina's post-war economic decline would certainly be more difficult > >if it was subjected to the same kinds of US/British-guided fiscal > >constraints as France, or even Canada and Australia. > > ---This is a very cogent, well-argued thesis. I expect > that it is correct. Had American aid eased the balance- > of-payments crises that Argentina underwent after the > war, it would have been much easier to avoid the bitter > distributional battles that wrecked what was left of > the country's economic and political system. Quite. Argentina (and I'll assume for the rest of this post that Uruguay will also be included since that country suffered from Argentina's problems only more so) had immense potential immediately after the Second World War. An Argentina that shared in Canadian-style prosperity (as it did before the Second World War) would be an immense asset not only to its citizens but to the whole of South America -- there could well be some interesting effects in South America that was home to a large First World country. Perhaps a MERCOSUR-equivalent led by Argentina thirty years early? Argentina is a case and point of the failure of a protectionist economic system lacking any kind of stable domestic environment or functioning and competitive industries. > An Argentina > included in the Marshall Plan and a member of the Atlantic > Alliance (which is not as large a stretch as it now seems) > would be far more prosperous. Here, I have to bow to your expertise. How would you integrate Argentina (and Uruguay) into the Marshall Plan and the Atlantic Alliance? (Hmm, a name change will definitely be in order with Buenos Aires as a major ATO capital.) > Noel -- Randy McDonald Charlottetown PEI Canada Subject: Re: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2001 17:20:18 -0600 From: Keith Morrison Organization: Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 Randy McDonald wrote: > > An Argentina > > included in the Marshall Plan and a member of the Atlantic > > Alliance (which is not as large a stretch as it now seems) > > would be far more prosperous. > > Here, I have to bow to your expertise. How would you integrate Argentina > (and Uruguay) into the Marshall Plan and the Atlantic Alliance? (Hmm, a > name change will definitely be in order with Buenos Aires as a major ATO > capital.) Not necessarily. Remember those long North Atlantic coastlines of Italy, Greece and Turkey. The Marshall Plan is iffy, but one way to get Argentina into the Alliance would be for a successful communist takeover in one of the other major South American countries. Let's say that for some reason Chile emerges from the war with a working communist dictatorship. That would start NATO hunting for allies immediately, and with an Argentina that had been in the war since 1940 or 41, they're an immediate ally. Hmmm, perhaps more importantly, what you need is a moderately competent communist regime, one that cements it's hold on power so firmly that it becomes apparent that no dinky little rebel group is going to toss it out. And the USSR recognizing the golden opportunity of having a couple of bases on the other side of the Pacific, just as the US has in Japan and the Phillipines, loudly announces its recognition and support for the regime. If you have an Iron Curtain in South America, with the right breaks, Argentina benefits from massive American bases and large numbers of personnel sationed in the country which will tend to influence it toward the mindset of the northern Alliance members. Argentina benefits another way; if it becomes, essentially, Canada South it's a magnet for the poorer Spanish-speaking populations of South and Central America. People may be more inclined to head there, with a common language and majority Catholic Church, than they would be to go to the US. There'll still be a large Spanish presence along the Mexican border, but people who afford it may choose to head south instead. This could have large repercussions on the social structure of the US. -- Keith Subject: Re: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2001 20:55:44 -0300 From: Randy McDonald Organization: Posted via Supernews, http://www.supernews.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 Keith Morrison wrote: > > Randy McDonald wrote: > > > > An Argentina > > > included in the Marshall Plan and a member of the Atlantic > > > Alliance (which is not as large a stretch as it now seems) > > > would be far more prosperous. > > > > Here, I have to bow to your expertise. How would you integrate Argentina > > (and Uruguay) into the Marshall Plan and the Atlantic Alliance? (Hmm, a > > name change will definitely be in order with Buenos Aires as a major ATO > > capital.) > > Not necessarily. Remember those long North Atlantic coastlines of > Italy, Greece and Turkey. At least they're in the right hemisphere. :-) > The Marshall Plan is iffy, but one way to get Argentina into the Alliance > would be for a successful communist takeover in one of the other major > South American countries. Let's say that for some reason Chile emerges > from the war with a working communist dictatorship. That would start > NATO hunting for allies immediately, and with an Argentina that had been > in the war since 1940 or 41, they're an immediate ally. Hmm. Was there the potential for _any_ country in South America to become authentically Communist, not just "proto-Euro-Communist" or radical left-wing. > [deletia] > > Argentina benefits another way; if it becomes, essentially, Canada > South it's a magnet for the poorer Spanish-speaking populations of > South and Central America. People may be more inclined to head > there, with a common language and majority Catholic Church, than > they would be to go to the US. There'll still be a large Spanish > presence along the Mexican border, but people who afford it may > choose to head south instead. This could have large repercussions > on the social structure of the US. This exaggerates Argentina's role. (And Uruguay, too.) In the late 1940's, OTL Argentina and Uruguay combined had a population something like an eighth that of the United States. Now, by virtue of their long and exposed borders with much poorer countries, and their substantially greater post-war economic success, both countries will attract fairly large numbers of immigrants from elsewhere in South America. The Chilean immigrant community of Argentina is both large and of long-standing, while the pressures for mass migration from Paraguay, Bolivia, and Peru to a country where wages are several dozen times higher than in their home countries will be huge. Brazil might also emerge as a major source of immigrants, though this depends on Brazil's economic development--will it be accelerated with a large First World market just next door? Over the course of their histories, however, the immigrants of Argentina and Uruguay have overwhelmingly been European. (Hmm -- the post-war wave of European emigrants from Italy, Spain, Portugal, and central Europe should fit in quite well.) While reappraisals of Argentine immigration policies along the lines of contemporary Canada are quite possible, expect major problems in the interim. And given the near-complete absence of any substantive ties between Mexico and Argentina (or Central America and Argentina, or the Caribbean and Argentina) prior to the 1960's or so, and given that the United States is just next door, I don't see this substantively affecting the dynamics of middle American immigration to the US. > -- > Keith -- Randy McDonald Charlottetown PEI Canada Subject: Re: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: 1 Oct 2001 21:20:18 -0700 From: Jonathan I. Edelstein Organization: Newsguy News Service [http://newsguy.com] Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 On 1 October 2001, Randy McDonald wrote: [deletia] >> The Marshall Plan is iffy, but one way to get Argentina into the Alliance >> would be for a successful communist takeover in one of the other major >> South American countries. Let's say that for some reason Chile emerges >> from the war with a working communist dictatorship. That would start >> NATO hunting for allies immediately, and with an Argentina that had been >> in the war since 1940 or 41, they're an immediate ally. > Hmm. Was there the potential for _any_ country in South America to > become authentically Communist, not just "proto-Euro-Communist" or > radical left-wing. Chile had a very active Communist Party at the time, and was at least as industrialized as Russia in 1917, so I don't see why not. A Socialist Republic of Chile was actually declared in June 1932, although it only lasted about three months before falling to a coup. Maybe the socialist government could be made to stick - arranging an accident for Alessandri would probably be the best way to do this, although I'm not sure that by itself would be enough. Alternatively, the Communists could launch a pre-emptive coup in '48 in order to prevent their former Popular Front coalition partners from ditching and then outlawing them. A Communist takeover at that time might lead to Chile being regarded as the first South American domino, resulting in massive American military and economic aid to Argentina to contain the spread of the revolution. Peru might benefit from this scenario as well - what were its domestic politics like at the time? Jonathan I. Edelstein in Kew Gardens, NY "Who is wise? He who learns from all." - Ben Zoma, Pirkei Avot 4:1 Subject: Re: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: Wed, 03 Oct 2001 00:51:23 -0300 From: Randy McDonald Organization: Posted via Supernews, http://www.supernews.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 Jonathan I. Edelstein wrote: > > On 1 October 2001, Randy McDonald wrote: > > [deletia] > > >> The Marshall Plan is iffy, but one way to get Argentina into the Alliance > >> would be for a successful communist takeover in one of the other major > >> South American countries. Let's say that for some reason Chile emerges > >> from the war with a working communist dictatorship. That would start > >> NATO hunting for allies immediately, and with an Argentina that had been > >> in the war since 1940 or 41, they're an immediate ally. > > > Hmm. Was there the potential for _any_ country in South America to > > become authentically Communist, not just "proto-Euro-Communist" or > > radical left-wing. > > Chile had a very active Communist Party at the time, and was at least as > industrialized as Russia in 1917, so I don't see why not. A Socialist > Republic of Chile was actually declared in June 1932, although it only > lasted about three months before falling to a coup. Maybe the socialist > government could be made to stick - arranging an accident for Alessandri > would probably be the best way to do this, although I'm not sure that by > itself would be enough. Hmm. I'm not sure whether or not the Soviet Union had the power-projection necessary to make a South American country bordering on the Pacific an authentic satellite. Let's say that *Chile goes full-fledged Communist sometime in the mid-1940's, contemporaneously with Soviet expansion in central Europe. Although Chile may identify itself closely enough with the Soviet bloc to push Argentina and Uruguay into the Atlantic Treaty Organization, I suspect that by 1956 the experience of the Hungarian invasion might push Chile away from strict adherence to Moscow, perhaps to a more Yugoslavian line. > Alternatively, the Communists could launch a pre-emptive coup in '48 in > order to prevent their former Popular Front coalition partners from > ditching and then outlawing them. A Communist takeover at that time > might lead to Chile being regarded as the first South American domino, > resulting in massive American military and economic aid to Argentina And Uruguay, and perhaps even Brazil. > to > contain the spread of the revolution. Peru might benefit from this > scenario as well - what were its domestic politics like at the time? Authoritarian and oligarchical, but that's the extent of my knowledge. > Jonathan I. Edelstein in Kew Gardens, NY > > "Who is wise? He who learns from all." > - Ben Zoma, Pirkei Avot 4:1 -- Randy McDonald Charlottetown PEI Canada Subject: Re: AH Challenge: Best of all possible Argentinas Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2001 16:24:27 +0200 From: Radovan Garabik Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 Ivan Hodes wrote: : This has been discussed, quite a bit, here and there, but I don't know : as it's actually been directly addressed in vacuo (to use the same : Latin phrase twice in a day). : With a POD no later than the end of World War II, have Argentina enjoy ^^^^^ you mean no sooner, right? : a history as peaceful and prosperous as the postwar United States. Easy... drag USA into little (not too big) nuclear exachange with USSR, and there you have suddenly Argentina on USA level :-) -- ----------------------------------------------------------- | Radovan Garabik http://melkor.dnp.fmph.uniba.sk/~garabik | | __..--^^^--..__ garabik @ fmph . uniba . sk | ----------------------------------------------------------- Antivirus alert: file .signature infected by signature virus. Hi! I'm a signature virus! Copy me into your signature file to help me spread!