Subject: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: Fri, 01 Jun 2001 08:23:21 -0400 From: Logan Ferree Organization: MindSpring Enterprises Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if Suppose that the Japanese had also decided to attack the Panama Canal. This would be very difficult, IMHO, and maybe near impossible. It may take some changes to South American History, having a pro-Axis state around that would allow the Japanese to use them as a base. It may have the Japanese control a group of Islands closer to the Canal than in OTL. First, is it even possible to have them attack the Canal? Second, what type of damage are we talking here. Could they possibily close it down until repairs can be made? How might this TL continue. Logan Ferree Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: Fri, 01 Jun 2001 15:27:39 GMT From: nospam@jumpgate.net (mike ) Organization: JumpGate Networks - Mason City Iowa Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 On Fri, 01 Jun 2001 08:23:21 -0400, Logan Ferree wrote: > Suppose that the Japanese had also decided to attack the Panama >Canal. This would be very difficult, IMHO, and maybe near impossible. yep. >It may take some changes to South American History, having a pro-Axis >state around that would allow the Japanese to use them as a base. It any pro-axis state that would allow military forces in is almost ASB territory. The USA was in full isolationist mode, the best way to change that is to have Japanese Imperialists or Nazi running about in S. America to bring forth the bad side of the USA, ala Wilsons interventions. The USA didn't care much for UK& French efforts in the area either, and they were our Allies. The USA wasn't happy about Japans failure to live up to post WWI agreements about not fortifying the Mandate areas they gained postwar doing so closer to the USA will bring the oil&scrap iron embargo much sooner. >may have the Japanese control a group of Islands closer to the Canal >than in OTL. there aren't many islands close enough to be worthy as a base, and any such presence would also step on the toes of France and UK, besides the USA. anything closere would change history quite a bit in the postwar agreements in the twenties, like the 5 powers, etc. The only way might be to keep the Anglo-Japanese Alliance going, but that leads to a world that will have nothing like OTL history. doing a 'secret base' works in comics and pulp novels, not real life >First, is it even possible to have them attack the Canal? >Second, what type of damage are we talking here. Could they possibily >close it down until repairs can be made? How might this TL continue. Attack yes, damage a little, yes, but close it? nope, that requires Grandslam earthquake or atomic bombs, items that the Japanese would not have. About a year ago this was talked over in SHWI, and feel just too lazy to into the details at the moment, but condider that the canal zone was one of the few places that the USA really planned to defend at all cost outside of CONUS, and the the engineering side of the locks and such are stronger/tougher than any Sub Pen, and note what it took to take out a *single* lighter weight lockgate at St Nazaire. It would take at least 4 such attacks, against a much better defended (16" guns to 75mm shore batteries) target, miles farther inland, to have an effect ** mike ** Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: Fri, 01 Jun 2001 22:46:53 -0400 From: Peter Rosa Organization: Prodigy http://www.prodigy.com Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 mike wrote: > On Fri, 01 Jun 2001 08:23:21 -0400, Logan Ferree > wrote: > > > Suppose that the Japanese had also decided to attack the Panama > >Canal. This would be very difficult, IMHO, and maybe near impossible. > > yep. > > >It may take some changes to South American History, having a pro-Axis > >state around that would allow the Japanese to use them as a base. It > > any pro-axis state that would allow military forces in is almost ASB > territory. The USA was in full isolationist mode, the best way to > change that is to have Japanese Imperialists or Nazi running about in > S. America to bring forth the bad side of the USA, ala Wilsons > interventions. The USA didn't care much for UK& French efforts in the > area either, and they were our Allies. WI the Japanese had deployed a larger number of aircraft carriers? -- Peter Rosa prosa123@yahoo.com R32R38@aol.com Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: Sun, 03 Jun 2001 20:07:58 +1000 From: Sydney Webb Organization: Webb Family Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 Peter Rosa wrote: > WI the Japanese had deployed a larger number of aircraft carriers? In OTL the Japanese had the largest and most powerful carrier force in the world in 1941. Not only were the carriers expensive in their own right but training the aircrews, using the methods of the day, was a very expensive and time consuming process. Also the efficacy of a carrier force, as an offensive strike force, was not proven until the British raid on Taranto in 1940. In short, a larger CV force for the IJN in 1941 would have meant an expensive commitment to an unproven platform. For resource-strapped Japan such a commitment would have meant a trade-off in other areas - perhaps the Army. Now a smaller army means fewer adventures, perhaps in Mongolia, perhaps in China, perhaps even in Manchuria. But no adventures in China means no US oil embargo which means no need for Dutch petroleum which means no attack on the Philippines which means no attack on Pearl Harbor. Phew! So the Japanese can deploy a larger number of aircraft carriers but depending on your real, underlying PoD - the first decision that is made that differs from OTL - and the logical consequences that flow from it, can give results that will be very different from a simple "the Japanese have the capacity to attack both Pearl and Panama on December 7, 1941". You may also want to look up the "Sinking the Panama Canal" thread we had on this NG at the beginning of the year. - Syd Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: Fri, 01 Jun 2001 16:10:50 GMT From: "Robert J. Kolker" Organization: Road Runner Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 Logan Ferree wrote: > Suppose that the Japanese had also decided to attack the Panama > Canal. This would be very difficult, IMHO, and maybe near impossible. > It may take some changes to South American History, having a pro-Axis > state around that would allow the Japanese to use them as a base. It > may have the Japanese control a group of Islands closer to the Canal > than in OTL. First, is it even possible to have them attack the Canal? > Second, what type of damage are we talking here. Could they possibily > close it down until repairs can be made? How might this TL continue. I have a feeling that if the Japanese had bases within striking distance of the Canal or if there was the slightest indication that the Japanese Navy might be within striking distance, the forces defending the Canal would be on the very highest state of alert. I assume in an ATL, the U.S. still would have broken JN-25 and the Purple Code and would have had a hint. I think the powers that be (or were) would have been much more touchy about the Canal than about Pearl Harbor. After all, we could always replace broken ships, but how do you replace a broken Canal that took years to build? Bob Kolker Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: 1 Jun 2001 12:20:25 -0400 From: jdnicoll@panix.com (James Nicoll) Organization: PANIX -- Public Access Networks Corp. Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 In article <3B17BECA.8B73F71B@mediaone.net>, Robert J. Kolker wrote: > >Logan Ferree wrote: > >> Suppose that the Japanese had also decided to attack the Panama >> Canal. This would be very difficult, IMHO, and maybe near impossible. >> It may take some changes to South American History, having a pro-Axis >> state around that would allow the Japanese to use them as a base. It >> may have the Japanese control a group of Islands closer to the Canal >> than in OTL. First, is it even possible to have them attack the Canal? >> Second, what type of damage are we talking here. Could they possibily >> close it down until repairs can be made? How might this TL continue. > >I have a feeling that if the Japanese had bases within striking distance >of the Canal or if there was the slightest indication that the Japanese >Navy might be within striking distance, the forces defending the Canal >would be on the very highest state of alert. I assume in an ATL, the >U.S. still would have broken JN-25 and the Purple Code and would >have had a hint. > >I think the powers that be (or were) would have been much more >touchy about the Canal than about Pearl Harbor. After all, we >could always replace broken ships, but how do you replace a >broken Canal that took years to build? The Japanese might take an innovative approach to the canal. An all out military attack might be beyond their abilities but what about duplicating the effects of the Halifax Habour Explosion? Fill the largest ship which can use the canal with high explosives, wait until it is at some critical point in the canal and set them off. You lose the ship and crew but do the damage of a small nuclear weapon to the Panama Canal. You might even be able to still pull off PH since the initial reports out of Panama will likely be somewhat confused. James Nicoll -- The Canadians were a hospitable and tolerant desert people, living on the edge of a wilderness of snow and permafrost. Winnipeg, Regina and Saskatoon were cities of the northern desert, Samarkands of ice. J.G. Ballard Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: Fri, 01 Jun 2001 12:22:40 -0400 From: "Walter R. Strapps" Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 James Nicoll wrote: > > In article <3B17BECA.8B73F71B@mediaone.net>, > Robert J. Kolker wrote: > > > >Logan Ferree wrote: > > > >> Suppose that the Japanese had also decided to attack the Panama > >> Canal. This would be very difficult, IMHO, and maybe near impossible. > >> It may take some changes to South American History, having a pro-Axis > >> state around that would allow the Japanese to use them as a base. It > >> may have the Japanese control a group of Islands closer to the Canal > >> than in OTL. First, is it even possible to have them attack the Canal? > >> Second, what type of damage are we talking here. Could they possibily > >> close it down until repairs can be made? How might this TL continue. > > > >I have a feeling that if the Japanese had bases within striking distance > >of the Canal or if there was the slightest indication that the Japanese > >Navy might be within striking distance, the forces defending the Canal > >would be on the very highest state of alert. I assume in an ATL, the > >U.S. still would have broken JN-25 and the Purple Code and would > >have had a hint. > > > >I think the powers that be (or were) would have been much more > >touchy about the Canal than about Pearl Harbor. After all, we > >could always replace broken ships, but how do you replace a > >broken Canal that took years to build? > > The Japanese might take an innovative approach to the canal. > An all out military attack might be beyond their abilities but what > about duplicating the effects of the Halifax Habour Explosion? Fill > the largest ship which can use the canal with high explosives, wait > until it is at some critical point in the canal and set them off. > You lose the ship and crew but do the damage of a small nuclear > weapon to the Panama Canal. > > You might even be able to still pull off PH since the > initial reports out of Panama will likely be somewhat confused. In fact, slap a Chinese flag on the ship and the confusion increases... But all of these might be considered even more dishonorable than a surprise military attack. Cheers, Walter R. Strapps > > James Nicoll > > -- > The Canadians were a hospitable and tolerant desert people, > living on the edge of a wilderness of snow and permafrost. Winnipeg, > Regina and Saskatoon were cities of the northern desert, Samarkands > of ice. J.G. Ballard Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: Fri, 01 Jun 2001 13:06:22 -0400 From: "Robert J. Kolker" Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 James Nicoll wrote: > > The Japanese might take an innovative approach to the canal. > An all out military attack might be beyond their abilities but what > about duplicating the effects of the Halifax Habour Explosion? Fill > the largest ship which can use the canal with high explosives, wait > until it is at some critical point in the canal and set them off. > You lose the ship and crew but do the damage of a small nuclear > weapon to the Panama Canal. An interesting scenario. Where ships checked for explosives before being admitted to the Canal from, say about 1939 on? Bob Kolker Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: Fri, 1 Jun 2001 22:26:53 +0100 From: "Marcus L. Rowland" Organization: Forgotten Futures Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 In article <3B17CB8E.D42557FB@mediaone.net>, Robert J. Kolker writes >> >> The Japanese might take an innovative approach to the canal. >> An all out military attack might be beyond their abilities but what >> about duplicating the effects of the Halifax Habour Explosion? Fill >> the largest ship which can use the canal with high explosives, wait >> until it is at some critical point in the canal and set them off. >> You lose the ship and crew but do the damage of a small nuclear >> weapon to the Panama Canal. > >An interesting scenario. Where ships checked for explosives >before being admitted to the Canal from, say about 1939 on? No idea, but this idea was around as a fictional possibility very soon after WW2 - C.S. Forester wrote a story in which the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour was accompanied by a German bomb ship on these lines, thwarted by some plucky British sailors. I think it was reprinted in a book called _Gold From Crete_ which also had Forester's fictionalised version of "Sea Lion", but I can't find my copy to check. -- Marcus L. Rowland Forgotten Futures - The Scientific Romance Role Playing Game http://www.ffutures.demon.co.uk/ http://www.forgottenfutures.com/ "We are all victims of this slime. They... ...fill our mailboxes with gibberish that would get them indicted if people had time to press charges" [Hunter S. Thompson predicts junk e-mail, 1985 (from Generation of Swine)] Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: 3 Jun 2001 23:14:23 GMT From: "Chris Williams" Organization: BT Internet Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1, 2 , 3, 4 , 5 Marcus L. Rowland wrote in article ... > No idea, but this idea was around as a fictional possibility very soon > after WW2 - C.S. Forester wrote a story in which the Japanese attack on > Pearl Harbour was accompanied by a German bomb ship on these lines, > thwarted by some plucky British sailors. One was a corblimey cockerney sparrow, but the other was a Swede, wasn't he? Or was he American? I'm sure it's in _Gold From Crete_ but I'm going by memory too. [Well, I'm back - for ID confirmation, Marcus, think 'old atlas'] Chris Williams Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: Mon, 4 Jun 2001 18:58:14 +0100 From: "Marcus L. Rowland" Organization: Forgotten Futures Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 In article <01c0ec83$f8b423c0$9f697ad5@148995>, Chris Williams writes > >> No idea, but this idea was around as a fictional possibility very soon >> after WW2 - C.S. Forester wrote a story in which the Japanese attack on >> Pearl Harbour was accompanied by a German bomb ship on these lines, >> thwarted by some plucky British sailors. > >One was a corblimey cockerney sparrow, but the other was a Swede, wasn't >he? Or was he American? I'm sure it's in _Gold From Crete_ but I'm going by >memory too. > That sounds about right, if I could find the damn book (and I'm sure I do have a copy somewhere) I'd know for sure >[Well, I'm back - for ID confirmation, Marcus, think 'old atlas'] > Nice to "see" you again. -- Marcus L. Rowland Forgotten Futures - The Scientific Romance Role Playing Game http://www.ffutures.demon.co.uk/ http://www.forgottenfutures.com/ "We are all victims of this slime. They... ...fill our mailboxes with gibberish that would get them indicted if people had time to press charges" [Hunter S. Thompson predicts junk e-mail, 1985 (from Generation of Swine)] Subject: Re: December 7, 1941: An Attack on the Canal Date: Sun, 03 Jun 2001 17:13:23 -0700 From: Tom Billings Organization: http://www.orl5.org Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if References: 1 Logan Ferree wrote: > Suppose that the Japanese had also decided to attack the Panama > Canal. This would be very difficult, IMHO, and maybe near impossible. > It may take some changes to South American History, having a pro-Axis > state around that would allow the Japanese to use them as a base. It > may have the Japanese control a group of Islands closer to the Canal > than in OTL. First, is it even possible to have them attack the Canal? > Second, what type of damage are we talking here. Could they possibily > close it down until repairs can be made? How might this TL continue. > > Logan Ferree The smallest change that would make this probable would be one in the late 1930s, in the IJN. Yamamoto, and several others in positions of influence IOTL, supported use of *large*, and very long-ranged, submarines, for just such an attack. These embarked seaplanes which could carry substantial bombs in IJN planning. The work on the Yamato battleships took precedence over these 7,500 ton subs, however, and the first went off the launch slip in 1944. Also, as the designs advanced, Fleet Faction admirals got other duties assigned, and more torpedoes, and other equipment that reduced the size and number of seaplanes carried to 2-3, that could carry only 1,100 lb. bombs, IIRC. Cancel the Yamatos, or limit their priority, and the I-Boats could possibly be ready by 1941. Keep their designs focused on the Panama Mission. It would take at least 10 boats, carrying 6-8 aircraft each, with their armament concentrated in the seaplanes, and only 2-3 defensive torpedo tubes. Hit the lock gates at the Gatun Locks, or some equivalent point. I doubt that anything like the 616 Squadron's dambusting could have worked, but perhaps fewer but larger aircraft carried could have carried some such devices to the dam that keeps the canal filled. The repairs would take some months, during which all ship reinforcements to Pearl would go by way of Tierra Del Fuego. If the Japanese followed up successfully against the wooden scaffolding for repairs to the canal at a crucial point in time, as the British did not IOTL, on the Ruhr dams, then they could possibly stretch this repair time to 9-12 months. This might get the Japanese to over-stretch even further than IOTL. The result would then be a quicker collapse, because their shipping would be even more over-strained than IOTL. he roll-back begins in 1944, just the same, and the japanese troops on their eastern zone would be starving long before then. Regards, Tom Billings