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From: bs925@FreeNet.Carleton.CA (Donald Tucker) Date: 1998/07/12 Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if John W Bragg (jbragg@osf1.gmu.edu) writes: > In article <6o4ecg$cip@freenet-news.carleton.ca> bs925@FreeNet.Carleton.CA >(Donald Tucker) writes: >> >>John W Bragg (jbragg@mason2.gmu.edu) writes: Rather than attempt to deal specifically with all of the points in this post, I have taken them on board and have incorporated them in a new timeline for a German negotiated victory in the Great War of 1914, This is an AH in which five years of war exhausted the fighting will of both sides, while the US remained neutral. Both the German and French governments were confronted with massive civil disorder in 1919 and were forced to divert considerable resources to suppress Communist insurrections inspired by the Bolshevik seizure of the Russian government, which followed a sequence similar to real history. The Armistice was formally concluded in Geneva on August 3, 1919, the fifth anniversary of the German Declaration of War against France. It was portrayed in the French press as a Great Victory for the hard pressed French government. 1914-1919 WESTERN FRONT The war had proceeded much as in real history with the great German advance through Belgium into northeast France which soon ossified into trench warfare. The difference is that the Germans stayed on the defensive at the Hindenburg Line from 1917 to the summer of 1919. Germany was able to do this because it knew that the Entente had no hope of reinforcements from the US, and thus was not pressured into the desperate gamble of the real history 1918 offensive. EASTERN FRONT On the Eastern Front the course of the war was also similar to real history. As in real history the early the Tsarist government of Russia collapsed in 1917 and a Boshevik coup resulted in a peace offer to Germany by the end of 1917. As in real history the Eastern Front was then essentially a north-south line somewhat to the east of the present day eastern frontier of Poland. As in real history Germany continued miltary hostilities until they achieved a result similar to the real history Treaty of Brest-Litovisk under which Russia abandoned Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic provinces, Finland and Transcaucasia. As in real history German military advances were able to clear the Bolsheviks out of Ukraine during March and April 1918. The difference is that without the pressing need to simultaneously gamble on the Western Front, Germany was able to focus more effort on exploiting the Ukrainian and Polish granary to stave off starvation in Germany. GERMAN DOMESTIC FRONT The AH successful exploitation of the Ukrainian grainary enabled Germany to survive the winter of 1918-19 and to maintain sufficient popular support to continue the war into 1919. But the government was hard pressed by Communist riots and declining enthusiasm for the war. FRENCH DOMESTIC FRONT Meanwhile the French government was facing a rapidly increasing tide of desertions from the Front and open rebellion by units who executed their officers. It also had to divert troops to suppress Communist insurrections in Paris, Marseille and Lyon inspired by the Bolshevik seizure of the Russian government OTHER FRONTS On other fronts, in Italy, the Balkans, Southwest Asia and Overseas the course of the war was also similar to real history. HABSBURG DISINTEGRATION By 1918 the Habsburg Monarchy was already in the process of full dissolution. As in real history Czech, Polish, Yugoslav and Romanian representatives met in Rome in the spring and proclaimed the right of self-determination and by June obtained Entente declarations of support. The Czechs, Poles and Yugoslavs had previously formed legions to fight alongside the Entente forces in France, Russia and Italy. Also as in real history the Austrians made a last bid for military victory by an attack on the Italian front. This failed and from this time onward there was progressive demoralization of the Army. As in real history this forced the Austrians to appeal for an Armistice and to attempt to recorganize the monarchy as a federal state. Also the Austrian armies were by then in a state of dissolution with several hundred thousand being captured by the advancing Italians and the remainer streaming home. The Czechs and Yugoslavs declared independence. By late 1918, as in real history, the Austrians made a separate peace with the Entente and the Hungarians seceeded. In the AH Habsurg disintegration meant that Germany would have great difficulties in continuing the war indefinately even if it was to fully mobilize the resources of Poland and Ukraine, particularly if a new Front developed along the Czech border. In real history the Czech Front never developed because of the Armistice of November 11, 1918. In the AH neither the Czechs nor the Germans made the first move towards open warfare during the last part of 1918 or in 1919. The Entente was hard pressed on other Fronts, including the exploding demands for troops to fight at the Balkan Front, and lacked the resources to transport sufficient troops to Czechoslovakia to make a offensive feasible. The Germans were similarly fully committed to actions on other Fronts. German troops based in Poland replaced any Austrian troops remaining in Galicia before Entente forces could arrive. Developments in the Balkans and in the Ottoman Empire also added to German problems. BALKAN FRONT In the Balkans, The Central powers conquered Serbia in 1915 and Romania in 1916. However, during 1918 the Entente reconquered Serbia and in September the Bulgarians appealed for an armistice. This required the Bulgarians to evacuate Greek and Serb territory and to make Bulgarian territory available for Entente operations. By late 1918, as in real history, the Entente forces entered Romania and prepared to fight against the Central Powers. In real history this Front never developed because of the Armistice of November 11, 1918. In the AH, as in real history, the Entente occupation of Romania was done with relatively few troops. This was followed by a poorly prepared advance into Ukraine on January 8, 1919. However, the Germans had many troops based in Ukraine to enusre that the granary was productive. The Germans were fortunate in that, as in real history, the Bosheviks had fallen into civil war in early 1918. This enabled the vast gains in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and easy occupation of Ukraine by Germany in March and April. In the AH the course of the civil war diverged from real history because Germany remained in control of Ukraine. The incestuous fighting in Russia during 1919 meant that Germany could safely divert large numbers of troops to overhwhem the Entente troops in the eastern Balkans. The Germans had little difficulty in repelling the Entente attack and retaliating with an advance into Romania. The Hungarians declared their neutrality and used their remnants of the Austro-Hungarian army to assert effective control over Transylvania and the Banat. The German advance into Romania routed the Entente forces and carried the Front into Bulgaria. This required the Entente to divert troops from other Fronts and to abandon hopes of building up strength for an offensive based in Czechoslovakia. By February 1919 the Germans had retaken Bulgaria, which reentered the war on the side of the Central Powers, and advanced to the Turkish border. From March 1919 until the end of the war the Entente pumped considerable forces into the Balkan Front, which ran north south in eastern Serbia, which now styled itself as Yugoslavia and curved east through southern Bulgaria towards Turkey. OTTOMAN DISINTEGRATION In the Ottoman Empire the war also followed the pattern of real history. The British landed at Gallipoli but had to withdraw in 1916 after distingushed resistance led by Mustafa Kemal. The French and British agreed in 1916 to partition administration the Arab lands. The British succeeded in allying with the Arabs and in 1918 defeated the Turks in Palestine and advanced as far as Allepo in northern Syria. Mustafa Kemal again fought against the British in this campaign. This defeat was too much for the Turks. As in real history a new Sultan had replaced the old one in mid 1918 and the Turks appealed for an armistice by late 1918. This obliged the Turks to open the Straits, demobilize their armies, sever relations with the Central Powers and place their territory at the disposal of the Entente for military operations. This had no effect on the war in real history as the Armistice of November 11, 1918 was concluded the day before the Entente fleet arrived at Constantinople. In real history Mustapha Kemal began in May 1919 to build up strong opposition to the Entente plans for Turkey. By August 1920 the feeble and helpless government of the sultan, protected by an international force of occupation at Constantinople accepted the humiliating Treaty of Sèvres which severed from Turkey the Arab lands, Smyrna and its hinterland in western Anatolia, and the Aegean islands. Mustapha Kemal organized a government in defiance of the sultan and the victorious Entente powers. By 1922 he suceeded in a counter offensive against the Greek invasion forces. For this and other achievements he was named Ataturk. BALKAN FRONT (PART TWO) In the AH the Entente succeeded in a manner similar to real history 1918. The opening of the Straits to Entente military shipping in late 1918 placed the German Eastern Front in grave danger of being flanked. The British navy delivered a Christmas present to the Kaiser when it shelled Odessa and Sebstopol. However bitter experience from the Galipoli fiasco had convinced the British that amphibious landings were not a good idea. Rather their strategy was to supply the Balkan Front through the port of Constanta on the Black Sea coast of Romania and thereby enable an advance from Romania into Ukraine. However, as in real history, the Entente occupation of Romania had been done with relatively few troops. The British rushed the preparations for the advance into Ukraine and launched the offensive on January 8, 1919, less than two months after the first Entente ships had passed through the Straits. The Germans had many troops based in Ukraine. They had little difficulty in repelling the Entente attack and retaliating with an advance into Romania. By January 18 the Germans occupied Constanta and cut off Entente efforts to supply their troops by sea. By February 1919 the Germans had retaken Bulgaria, which reentered the war on the side of the Central Powers, and advanced to the Turkish border. TURKEY REBORN Meanwhile the Turks were very unhappy with their treatment by the occupying Entente forces. The Greeks were settling old scores. The British and French could spare few troops from the Western Front for effective occupation of Turkey. The Germans had been in communication with Mustafa Kemal and encouraged him in his opposition to the Entente occupation. They had no need to persuade him. He was ready to act against his old enemies, the hated British. Mustafa Kemal had been preparing for a coup ever since the sultan had shown his weakness and treason to the Turkish people. On February 15, 1919 most of the Entente troops in Constantinople had been rushed to the border with Bulgaria where the Germans were assembling an invasion force. On this day Mustafa Kemal's supporters struck. They seized control of the palace and executed the sultan as a traitor. They simultaneously attacked the skeleton strength Entente garrison units in Constantinople. The day ended with an artillery duel between Turks firing seized shore guns and Entente ships in the harbor. Speaking for the provisional Turkish government Mustafa Kemal declared that Turkey was back in the war against the Entente and called on all loyal Turks to rise up against occupying troops. As there were relatively few Entente troops in Turkey except at the frontier with Bulgaria, this call was enthusiastically received by Mustafa Kemal's supporters throughout Anatolia. At the invitation of Mustafa Kemal the German forces crossed the frontier from Bulgaria on February 16 and ovewhemed the Entente expeditionary force. By February 18 it was no longer feasible for Entente naval forces to pass though the Straits. It was not feasible for Mustafa Kemal to reconquer the Arab lands. However, he could and did expell the Entente forces from Anatolia. OVERSEAS FRONTS On other Fronts the only change during 1919 was that the Germans based in German East Africa (Tanganyika) completed the conquest of Rhodesia begun in 1918. The Australians retained control of New Guinea and the neighboring German islands that they had invaded in 1914. The Japanese retained control of the German assets in China and the Pacific islands that they had invaded in 1914. The British and French retained control of Togoland and Kamerun, which they had invaded in 1914. The Union of South Africa retained control of German Southwest Africa (Namibia) which the British had invaded in 1914. The New Zealanders retained control of Samoa which they had invaded in 1914. FINAL MONTHS After the Germans ans Bulagarians had consolidated their hold in the Eastern Balkans the pressured Hungary to join the Central Powers and contribute troops to the Balkan Front or risk losing control of Transylvania. Hungary complied. This was followed by a Czech declaration of neutrality. NEGOTIATIONS As the months dragged on in 1919 war weariness and domestic pressures pushed the French and Germans to the negotiating table. The British government was also smarting after the humiliation of its second Trukish fiasco, even worse than Gallipoli. The Russians continued their civil war. The Japanese took this as an opportunity to occupy the Russian Far East district. The neutral US offered its good offices for peace negotiations. Fighting continued but there were few major offensives. Negotiations to end the fighting began in Geneva in June 1919. After several informal regional short term regional truces, France and Germany agreed to a formal Armistice to be concluded on August 3, 1919, the fifth anniversary of the German Declaration of War against France. The breakthough in the negotiations occured when the German, French and British negotiators agreed to the principles of: 1. all parties bear their own costs, no reparations. 2. withdrawal where possible to 1914 frontiers. 3. Germany's abandonment of territory in France, Belgium and Netherlands to be compensated by overseas colonies in the same manner that this principle was applied after the Seven Years War and other European wars. 4. Defacto demilitarization between France and Germany. before the 19th century. GREAT WAR LOSSES The additional nine months of war increased the losses for Germany, France and Britain more than for other countries, except in the Eastern Balkans and Turkey. In millions: AH AH Real H Real H Dead Wounded Dead Wounded Germany 2.1 5.1 1.8 4.2 France 1.7 3.7 1.4 3.0 Britain 1.2 2.5 .9 2.1 Russia 1.9 5.5 1.7 4.9 Austria-Hungary 1.4 4.4 1.2 3.6 Italy .6 1.0 .5 .9 Turkey .7 .8 .3 .4 TERMS OF THE ARMISTICE WAR COSTS To be borne by the countries that incurred them. No reparations or claims for compensation. GERMAN OBLIGATIONS Germany agreed to withdraw from all occupied territory in France -- the front had remained in the region of the 1917 Hindenburg Line for the last two years of the war -- and not to attempt reoccupation of the western strip in the southern part of Elass that France had gained in 1914 and held for the duration of the war. Elass, also known as Alsace-Lorraine, was the German speaking region that France had acquired piecemeal during the 17th and 18th centuries and surrendered to Germany in 1870. Germany also agreed to limit its permanent military forces in Elass to 50,000 troops so that it would become a virtually demilitarized zone between Germany and France. Germany agreed to withdraw by October 1, 1919, from Rhodesia and any other overseas British or French territory that it had occupied. Germany also agreed to withdraw any troops or military advisors that it had stationed in the Ottoman lands south of an east west line running thirty miles north of the Syrian city of Alleppo and the Northern Iraqi city of Mosul (Al Mawsil). FRENCH OBLIGATIONS France also agreed to limit its permanent military forces in a 50 mile wide zone west of Elass to 50,000 troops so that it would become a virtually demilitarized zone between Germany and France. France agreed to withdraw by October 1, 1919, from any overseas German territory that it had occupied and to transfer some minor overseas colonies to Germany by January 1, 1920. These consisted of Dahomey (Benin) next to the German colony of Togo, Gabon-French Congo next to the German colony of Kamerun (Cameroon), and New Caledonia southeast of the Germany colony of New Guinea and the Bismark Archipelago. France also agreed to withdraw from Ottoman Territories by October 1, 1919, and to repudiate the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 which divided the Arab lands into French and British administrative zones. BRITISH OBLIGATIONS Britain agreed to withdraw by October 1, 1919, from any overseas German territory that it had occupied, and made a similar obligation on behalf of members of the British Empire. Britain also agreed to withdraw from Ottoman Territories by October 1, 1919, and to repudiate the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 which divided the Arab lands into French and British administrative zones. NETHERLANDS OBLIGATIONS Netherlands agreed to limit its permanent military to 100,000 troops and to transfer its oveseas colonies to Germany by January 1, 1920. These consisted of the Dutch East Indies, Surinam and some Caribbean islands. BELGIAN OBLIGATIONS Belgium agreed to limit its permanent military to 100,000 troops and to transfer its oveseas colonies to Germany by January 1, 1920. These consisted of the Belgian Congo. JAPANESE OBLIGATIONS Britain agreed to withdraw by October 1, 1919, from any overseas German territory that it had occupied, i.e. the Pacific islands, and to pay compensation for German assets in China. CZECH OBLIGATIONS Czechoslovakia agreed to limit its permanent military to 100,000 troops. ROMANIAN OBLIGATIONS Romania agreed to limit its permanent military to 100,000 troops and to not contest Hungarian possession of Transylvania BORDERS In addition to border changes mentioned above: Bulgaria: retains 1914 borders. Turkey: retains 1914 borders in Europe. Southern border is a line 30 miles north of Aleppo and Mosul plus a southward extension along the Syrian coast to 35^ latitude. Saudi Arabia: northern border is Turkey's southern border. Palestine and Lebanon: northern border is Turkey's southern border. International state administered by Joint Commission of Britain, France and Germany with freedom of religion as its founding principle. SIGNATURE The Armistice was actually signed by only France, Germany, and Britain. These powers agreed to ensure that other states would comply with the agreement. Bulgaria and Hungary immediately indicated their agreement. The other countries fell into line over the next few years as formal peace treaties were concluded. COMMENT Post-war Germany has an overseas empire comparable to Brtoaon and France. The most valuable item was the former Dutch East Indies. It also had a collection of colonies that spanned equatorial Africa from Kamerun to Tanganika. THE POST-WAR WORLD This is to follow. It will resemble the ideas in my earlier post with some modifications to take account of John Bragg's comments. Donald ___,__<@~__,___ Pteranodon Visioneering: /^/^/^[#]^\^\^\ Views on the past, present and future. logo _/|\_ World history; Alternate history FAQs; Maps copyright 1996 " " © http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Forum/4123/ NEW at website: Andrew Goldstein's Amerindians dominate world timeline (end of original message) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You can view this message and the related discussion by following this link: http://www.deja.com/%5bST_rn%3dps%5d/dnquery.xp?search=thread&svcclass=dnserver&recnum=%3c6oa61s$fb2@freenet-news.carleton.ca%3e%231/6 We hope to see you soon at Deja.com. Share what you know. Learn what you don't. http://www.deja.com/%5bST_rn%3dps%5d/